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NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers

vs.

Atlanta Falcons

1/22/17by

Jason Green

The NFC title game is set and the Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers in what is sure to be a shootout. The big question in this game is can either team play some defense. Aaron Rodgers had been lights out in the Packers 8 game-winning streak and the Packers have scored at least 34 points in each of their 2 playoff games.

Falcons QB Matt Ryan put up a MVP season and he played a great game in their playoff win over the Seattle Seahawks last week. Their defense only ranks 27th in the league in opponents' ppg, but that unit played well in the Seattle win only giving up 20 points.

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games facing the Falcons in Atlanta and they covered the spread this season facing them there in a 33-32 loss.

In their last game the Packers won a barnburner beating the Dallas Cowboys 34-31 covering the spread as a 5-point road underdog.

The Falcons beat the Seahawks in their last game 36-20 where they covered the spread at home as a 6.5-point favorite.

Rodgers has been playing great in the Packers win streak and even without Jordy Nelson, who is likely out for this game, he has a lot of weapons. In the win over Dallas he passed for 355 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and he had to do most of the work since Green Bay only rushed for 87 yards. If he can get some help from the run game in this title contest it will make Green Bay tough to beat.

Atlanta only ranks 28th in the league in pass defense and 17th in run defense. In the win over the Seahawks the Falcons' defense only gave up 309 total yards and they had three sacks and their pass rush will be key in this game.

Matt Ryan only added to his MVP legitimacy in the win over Seattle passing for 338 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. He has one of the best receivers in the league in Julio Jones, who leads a solid WR corps. Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman combined to rush for 102 yards in the game and Freeman caught 4 passes for 80 yards including a 53-yard reception.

Green Bay ranks 2nd to last in the league in pass defense and 8th in run defense and even in beating Dallas last week they gave up more total yards (429 to 413).

Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, and in their last 6 games the posted total has gone Over every time.

Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 9 games at home the posted total has gone Over every time.

Our Pick - Falcons -5.5



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