Ohio State
vs.
Michigan
College Football
Free Pick
11/25/17
Ohio State still has a slight chance to reach the College Football Playoff and it’s unlikely it takes its foot off the pedal in this rivalry Game. Michigan is still Michigan, but it’s hard to overlook that the Wolverines haven’t beaten a team with a .500 record or better. Ohio State struggled its last time on the road and lost to Iowa, but has come around since then and was an -11 point favorite as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
since that loss to the Hawkeyes, the Buckeyes have run through Michigan State and Illinois in the last two weeks and there’s little reason to believe Michigan will stop them. These teams battled to two overtimes last season with OSU getting a sketchy win, but the Wolverines aren’t at that same level. Expecting Michigan to Scoremore than 20 points in this Game would be a stretch. In their three previous Games against teams with winning records (MSU, PSU, WIS), they’ve scored a combined 33 points. This offense hasn’t been good all year and even playing at home, doesn’t make this a good unit.
Quarterback Brandon Peters left the Wisconsin Game with a concussion and his status is uncertain for this one. While he’s not amazing, he still hasn’t thrown an interception, while replacement John O’Korn has already thrown five. If O’Korn gets the start, Michigan fans may not want to watch this entire Game. But no matter whom the quarterback is, the Wolverines will lean on the running Game as much as possible. The problem is that Karan Higdon and Ty Isaac are both dealing with injuries, leaving Chris Evans as the only healthy running back with more than 20 carries this season. They couldn’t get anything going last Game against Wisconsin, and with Ohio State expected to stack the box, things will be difficult again.
The other side is where Michigan has a chance, although that still wasn’t enough to cover against the Badgers last week. The Wolverines have one of the better defenses in the country, but when their offense is barely on the field, that’s usually not enough. For the Badgers, Jonathan Taylor had decent success en route to 132 yards and that’s how Ohio State will attack this defense.
J.T. Barrett may be the best quarterback Michigan has seen this season, so that doesn’t help much either. That said, the Bucks will go to the ground as much as possible between J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber. After going through an equally stout Michigan State defensive front a couple weeks ago, there’s no reason to believe this group can’t do the same here. The only way for Michigan to cover will be to keep the scoring at or below 20 points. But if Barrett and company break off a long run or two, things could be extremely difficult for the Wolverines, even at home. And if that ground Game doesn’t work, Barrett has had plenty of success throwing the ball this season, completing a career best 66.9% of his passes for 32 touchdowns.
The Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, while the Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games. Jim Harbaugh is also 1-6 against Top 10 teams as Michigan’s head coach. In this meeting, Ohio State has covered in five of the last six meetings in Ann Arbor, with the over hitting in the last Four overall.
Our Pick – Michigan +12.5