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Oklahoma State

vs.

Iowa State

College Football

Free Pick

11/11/17

This game could’ve been huge in the Big 12 landscape, but after both teams lost last week, the implications aren’t as much. Still, both OK State and Iowa State will have a shot to reach the Big 12 title game, although will need to win out. The Cowboys were -7 point road favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

This spread is interesting for a number of reasons, mainly because taking Oklahoma State by more than a touchdown on the road is risky, especially for a defense that just gave up 62 points. When these teams met last year, Iowa State almost shocked the country, but let a late, third quarter 17-point lead slip away on the road. That performance was a bit of a preview for what this team would eventually become in 2017. The Cyclones already beat TCU at home, so it’s not like this will be a free win for OK State.

Defense is what has led to Iowa State’s rise in the standings, giving up just 40 points total in the last four games. While they lost last week, allowing 20 points to Will Grier and company on the road is a tough feat. When OK State has played a mediocre to good defense this season, they scored 13 points at Texas and 31 in the loss to TCU. Mason Rudolph has great numbers, but a lot of those are juiced because of easy matchups in the Big 12.

Rudolph was the only reason the Pokes won this game last season as he threw for 351 yards and four touchdowns with 24 points coming in the final 18 minutes of the game. The offense struggled as a whole because they couldn’t run on the Cyclones and that will be big here. ISU is allowing 135 rushing yards per game and if Justice Hill can’t get going, that will take away a piece of this offense. Hill has rarely been stopped this season so that will be something to consider, but if he doesn’t reach 100 yards, that would be a big edge to the Cyclones even with Rudolph and James Washington in the passing game.

The Iowa State defense can cover this game by itself, but for a Cyclones win, it will depend on the offense, which has slowed down to score just 30 points in the last two games. Kyle Kempt has come in at quarterback and been great, but this is still a run-first offense that wants to go through David Montgomery, who has at least 25 carries in the last three games. The problem is that OK State’s strong suit is in rush defense, while allowing 273 passing yards per game. If Montgomery can’t run the ball, it may fall to Kempt to get this offense going.

This spread is a bit fishy for a number of reasons. Oklahoma State could blow up for 50 points and win big, but nothing in the past season indicates that will happen here. The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight following an ATS loss. The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, but the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Our Pick - Iowa State +6.5

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