Ravens
vs.
Steelers
Week 14
NFL Pick
12/10/17
By: Jason Green
Baltimore Ravens (7-5 SU 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-2 SU 6-6 ATS)
The Ravens have really been flying under the radar this season, but they are two Games over .500 and if the season ended today they would be one of the Wild Card teams in the AFC. They have won three in a row, but none of the wins came against teams that currently are over .500. Still, Baltimore is in the playoff picture and even though they lost badly at home to the Steelers early in the season their defense has improved and they rank 3rd in the league in points against.
5Dimes sportsbook has the Steelers as the 4.5-point favorite with a total of 44.
The Steelers are red-hot winners of seven in a row and they are tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the AFC. While they crushed the Ravens on the road earlier this season they cannot overlook them to their next Game, which is HUGE hosting the Patriots in a Game that may determine the top seed for the AFC in the playoffs. Pittsburgh is coming off a close and very physical Monday night Game and their D leads the team ranking 5th in the league in points against.
The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Games against the Steelers, but their one ATS loss in that span was earlier this season.
In their last Game the Ravens laid a 44-20 beat down on the Detroit Lions where they outscored the Lions 20-0 in the first half. They had two fewer overall yards than Detroit, but they forced three turnovers and did not commit any, played solid run defense, and held the Lions to 4/13 on 3rd down conversions. Joe Flacco had 269 passing yards with 2 TD and 0 INT and he was picked off twice with only 1 TD in the earlier loss to the Steelers. Alex Collins and in the win over the Lions he rushed for 75 yards averaging a legit five yards per carry and had two TD and he had a good Game facing Pittsburgh in the first match up, but is dealing with migraines and if he cannot go it will be a big blow to Baltimore.
The Steelers are balanced on the defending side pf the ball ranking 2nd in the league in pass D and 8th in run D.
The Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 in their last Game where they overcame a 17-point deficit and outscored Cincy 20-3 in the 2nd half. They only had 21 more total yards (374-353), had the Game’s only turnover, and allowed the Bengals to convert on 50% of their 3rd downs and still got the W. Ben Roethlisberger passed for 290 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and RB Le’Veon Bell, who rushed for 76 yards, led the team with 106 receiving yards and star WR Antonio Brown had 101 receiving yards and each had a TD. Baltimore ranks 3rd in the league in run defense, but 16th in run defense and they gave up 172 rushing yards in the win over the Ravens this season.
The Ravens are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 Games, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Games after a straight up win, and in their last 5 road Games they have an Over record of 4-1.
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games facing a team with a winning record, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Games after an ATS loss, and in their last 7 Games facing a team with a winning record they have an Under record of 5-2.
Jason’s Pick; The Ravens have won three in a row, but against less than stellar teams. While Pittsburgh may not be stellar they are one of the best in the AFC and have a legit chance to get to the Super Bowl. Like the first match up with the Ravens the Steelers will play good D, run the ball well, and win and cover the spread.