Texas Tech
vs.
Texas
College Football
Free Pick
11/24/17
Texas Tech would like to reach a bowl Game, but with five wins right now, that seems unlikely. Texas reached that total last week with an impressive win at West Virginia and look headed for a decent bowl Game in Tom Herman’s first season, even with the loss to Maryland in the opener. The Longhorns were early -10.5 point favorites (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) for this Friday night Game.
The Longhorns won this Game last year with the help of D’Onta Foreman, who ran for a ridiculous 341 yards and three touchdowns (and unfortunately tore his Achilles with the Houston Texans this past weekend). Even with Patrick Mahomes last season, the Red Raiders still didn’t have enough to win this matchup and there’s no reason to believe in them now. They’ve lost five of their last six Games with their only two Big 12 wins coming against Baylor and Kansas. They were just dominated by TCU and have lost their previous two road Games by at least 11 points.
As for Texas, it already has five Conference wins with standout defensive performances in wins over Iowa State and West Virginia, but also the 13-10 loss to OK State. If that defense shows up here, this could be another blowout for the Red Raiders.
But while the Longhorns are allowing only 21.2 points per Game, they’ve been up and down most of the season and their weak spot is in pass defense allowing 250 yards per contest. That’s the one area Texas Tech shines with Nic Shimonek leading the Air Raid with a 68.5 completion rate to go with 28 touchdowns and only eight picks. The only way Tech has a chance is if Shimonek hits 300 or even 400 yards and a few touchdowns. The Red Raiders have a decent running Game between Justin Stockton and Tre King, but that usually isn’t enough because of the team’s defense. Stockton went for 124 yards against TCU last week, yet the team still lost 27-3.
Tech’s defense is often one of the worst in the country and this season is nothing different, although 32.5 points allowed is better than previous campaigns. They’re still bad against every different kind of offense.
The Longhorns don’t have the most explosive offense and that could be a reason they don’t cover, but they’ve done enough for the most part, although the quarterback issue remains a thing. Sam Ehlinger led the team to a win at WVU last week, but Shane Buechele has started the last Four Games, including the WVU Game. ACCording to the numbers, Ehlinger is more dynamic as a rusher and has better passing numbers, but Buechele continues to start for Herman. The big question may be if Texas can actually run the ball because Ehlinger leads the team in rushing and he has just 333 yards. If the Longhorns can’t run and Tech gets just enough out of Shimonek, this one could have a good finish. But that’s still assuming Tech’s defense stops the Texas passing Game and can Scoreon the other end.
The Red Raiders haven’t covered in their last Four Games vs. a team with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. The Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home Games. In this matchup, Texas has covered in six of the last seven, although the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Our Pick – Texas -7.5