USC
vs.
Arizona State
College Football
Free Pick
10/28/17
The pain might not be over for USC just yet. The Trojans may have faced the bulk of their tough Games already, but a trip to Arizona State has become a lot harder than it once was. The Sun Devils come in having just one Conference loss with the big win over Washington highlighting their resume. The Trojans were small -2.5 point road favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
It’s clear this isn’t the same USC team that many envisioned coming into the season. Nothing has gone right for this team with all but two of their wins being closer than expected. Throw in the most recent loss at Notre Dame and the Trojans fate was realized in that they just aren’t that good. Now as small favorites against an Arizona State team that’s playing well and another loss could be headed for USC. ASU is coming off a win over UW as well as a 30-10 whooping at Utah last weekend.
It doesn’t help that the Sun Devils have turned into a run-first offense this season, which happens to be USC’s major weakness giving up 175 rushing yards per contest. While Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard aren’t averaging much on the ground, they’ve still been force fed the ball along with quarterback Manny Wilkins. As a team, Arizona State is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, but that’s limited the amount of mistakes Wilkins can make throwing the ball and that’s been a fine strategy so far. If this offense can find holes in the ground Game and then open up the passing Game for Wilkins, this will be another scary situation for USC fans.
The good news is that Sam Darnold should have an easier time scoring in this matchup, although ASU’s defense has suddenly turned competent, allowing just 17 points in the last two Games. Darnold has been all over the place this season and his 10 interceptions stand out above every other stat after only throwing nine a year ago. The Trojans will hope their ground Game can do enough to move the ball behind Ronald Jones II and possibly freshman Stephen Carr if he returns from injury.
There have been few reasons to trust USC this season and this could be another situation that comes down to the wire. On the road against a team that already beat Washington, the Sun Devils won’t back down. The Trojans dominated this Game last season, ahead at one time 41-6, but that’s a long time ago and USC looks like a different team in 2017, one that continually disappoints.
At home and under the lights, Arizona State is looking for a win that would suddenly propel it into first place in the Pac-12 South, something no one projected going into the season. The Trojans have failed to cover in their last Four Conference Games, but are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 following a straight-up loss. The Sun Devils have covered in their last Four and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home Games.
Our Pick – Arizona St +4