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USC

vs.

Colorado

College Football

Free Pick

11/11/17

The narrative for most of the season has been that USC isn’t good, but the Trojans still have a good shot to reach double-digit wins and make another appearance in the Pac-12 title game. Their favorable final month of the season continues with a trip to Colorado. The Trojans were -13.5 point road favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

This isn’t the same Colorado team as a year ago so last season’s 21-17 result can’t be considered. The Buffs lost their defensive coach and haven’t been nearly as a good as the 2016 surprise campaign. They come in at just 2-5 in conference play and haven’t looked good in any conference game. They’ve been better at home, but still lost 37-10 to Washington back in September. USC comes in looking revived since its lost to Notre Dame and has scored 97 combined points in the last two games. Against a Colorado defense that is getting gashed in all phases, this could be another 40-plus point game for the Trojans.

Quarterback Sam Darnold gets all the buzz, and while he’s been fine, it’s the rushing attack that runs this offense. That said, Darnold should be headed for another 300-yard game and a couple touchdowns. Ronald Jones II could be in for another 200-yard game on the ground after going for 410 and five touchdowns in the previous two games. The Buffaloes give up close to 200 rushing yards per game, which is worse than Arizona and ASU so there’s a good chance Jones has another huge game.

With that being the case and Colorado failing to stop any offense from moving the ball in the Pac-12, the only way for a Colorado cover will be to score. The Buffaloes aren’t terrible offensively, but most of their points have been scored against bad defenses. Of course, USC’s defense isn’t good by any means, giving up 171 rushing yards per game.

That’s where Colorado running back Phillip Lindsay comes into play with 1,334 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. The best way Colorado can cover is if he can reach 100 or even 150 yards on the ground. But even if that doesn’t work, Steven Montez has the ability to put points on the board after tossing for 340 yards in each of the last two games. Again, USC’s defense has looked better in recent outings, which has led to two fairly easy wins so if that trend continues, the Buffs could be in trouble. But in terms of the season as a whole, Colorado has the players to put points on USC and that could be enough for a spread that’s pushing two touchdowns.

The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and haven’t covered in their last four against a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools.

Our Pick - Colorado +13

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