USC
vs.
Notre Dame
College Football
Free Pick
10/21/17
The struggles continue for USC even with a win last week and a trip to South Bend likely won’t help turn things around for the Trojans. Notre Dame come in undefeated and off a week of rest. While that’s the case, the Irish still aren’t much of a favorite, opening at -3.5 as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
It was looking like another loss for the Trojans last week against Utah, down 21-7 at half. But after three-straight touchdowns in the second half, USC escaped with a win, only because the Utes went for two after a last-minute touchdown. Sam Darnold finished with three touchdowns and 358 yards, but one of the reasons USC was down early was because of how he looked. The Trojans offense has the ability to be dynamic, but if Darnold continues to show inconsistencies, they’ll find themselves in a lot of holes.
This should be a good test for Darnold and company as Notre Dame has played stout defense all season, never allowing more than 20 points. Of course, the Irish haven’t seen a quarterback like Darnold, with most of their competition coming against first-year starting QBs like Georgia’s Jake Fromm and Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke. For USC to win this Game, Darnold will need a top showing and can’t turn the ball over, which he did in the first six Games of the season. The Trojans will still try and establish a run early between Ronald Jones II (640 yards, 8 TDs) and possibly Stephen Carr if he returns from a foot injury.
The other side of the ball is the bigger problem for USC as its defense hasn’t stopped anyone this season. The Trojans are allowing less than 24 points per Game, but they’ve also allowed at least 20 points in six of seven contests.
All signs point to the Irish being able to run right through them similar to most USC opponents this season. Just last week, the Trojans were gashed by a mediocre Utah rushing attack as their top running back had 141 yards on 7.1 yards per carry. Expect the combo of quarterback Brandon Wimbush and running back Josh Adams to see a lot of open holes. Adams is on a ridiculous pace with 9.0 yards per carry, already with 776 yards and five touchdowns. Wimbush hasn’t been great through the air, but hasn’t needed to be as he’s also at a solid 5.9 yards per carry. If USC gets out to a lead, that could cause some adversity for Notre Dame and Wimbush, as that’s not something this offense has had to deal with many times this season.
There’s little to take away from last year’s matchup when USC won easily 45-27. These teams have looked much different from a year ago as Notre Dame is actually playing with confidence, while USC has been worse on both sides of the field. The Irish are favored and have looked like a much better team, but don’t put it past Darnold to get the Trojans within striking distance of a win here. Still, the Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road Games and haven’t covered in their last five. The Fighting Irish have covered in their last Four Games, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Our PIck – Notre Dame -3