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Alabama

vs.

Ole Miss

College Football

Free Pick

9/15/18

There haven’t been any surprises for Alabama in the early season with a ridiculous 108-21 score line from the first two games. The Crimson Tide will try and bring that dominance into the SEC, which shouldn’t be a problem. Ole Miss has arguably had just as good of start mainly because it wasn’t expected to be a good season. Still, the Tide were large -21 point road favorites as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook

When these teams met last year it was an absolute bloodbath with Alabama winning 66-3. Nothing went right for Ole Miss outside of one long run. Shea Patterson did nothing en route to a couple picks and the ground game managed 3.4 yards per carry. As for the winning team, Jalen Hurts did what he wanted and the Tide went for 365 rushing yards. You’d think it couldn’t be as bad for Ole Miss this year, but it’s not a given the defense is any better. The Rebs just gave up 41 points, 388 passing yards and 241 rushing yards to Southern Illinois. Sure, they won the game, but the defense is still a problem and that won’t help in this matchup.

Whether it’s Tua Tagovailoa or Hurts at quarterback, the Tide may not have to punt in this game. Tagovailoa is the better passer, but as seen in last year’s matchup, Hurts is the better runner and sometimes that’s enough. There’s little reason to think Ole Miss will stop anything in this game. Tagovailoa should have plenty of success in the air and the ground game will be fine led by Najee and Damien Harris. The only chance the Rebs have is if they get amped up simply because it’s at night and in Oxford.

The best route to covering for Ole Miss is through the offense, which has looked dynamic with Jordan Ta’amu at quarterback. His numbers are great along with running back Scottie Phillips, but they should be taken with a grain of salt entering SEC play. That was how last season went and then Ole Miss had trouble scoring against the better teams on the schedule. Texas Tech and SIU have two of the worst defenses Ole Miss will see this year and Alabama is one of the best. To cover, Ta’amu will have to score a few times and probably reach around 20 points. Even then, Alabama could get up to 50 points and then it’d be even more difficult for the Rebels.

It’s never fun or easy to bet against Alabama, which is why this spread will likely move up a little before Saturday night. Given how last year went, there’s no reason to think Alabama won’t control every facet of this game. That said, the Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and the Rebels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The over is 11-1 in the Rebels’s last 12 at home and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools.

Our Pick - The line  has risen to Bama -23 as of Friday. Prior to last years 66-3 blow out, the previous 3 games were close, with Ole Miss winning 2 of 3 straight up! Expect a huge effort from Ole Miss, at home, looking to atone last seasons embarasssing loss. They may not get the win, but they may have enough in the tank to stay within the spot. Ole Miss +23

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