Cincinnati
at
Central Florida
NCAAF
ATS Trends
Free Pick
11/17/18
Oddly enough, an AAC Game may be one of the biggest of the weekend. Cincinnati and UCF have a combined one loss, though the winner isn’t guaranteed a spot in the Conference title Game because the Bearcats already lost to Temple, who also only has one AAC loss. Either way, the Knights were -7.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 58.5 as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The only three times these teams have met it hasn’t been close. UCF won 51-23 last year, 24-3 in 2016 and then Cincy won 52-7 in 2015. And even last year, Cincinnati was a much different team that finished 4-8 so it’s hard to put too much into that result. But any way you look at it, these aren’t your usual dominant teams. Cincy’s best non-Conference win came at UCLA and it barely beat SMU, while UCF’s best non-Conference win was against Pitt and it escaped past Memphis in the AAC.
The Bearcats have a good defense on paper, but it’s unknown if that’s only a product of competition because they gave up 30 points to Ohio earlier in the season. Sure, shutting out Navy is great, but the Mids are having a down season. UCF is a much different test, especially after McKenzie Milton torched this defense last year, completing 16-of-19 passes for 374 yards and five touchdowns. Those are almost perfect numbers and while Milton hasn’t been as good this year due to a lesser supporting cast, he’s still efficient with only five interceptions and 9.09 yards per attempt. The Knights will likely turn to the ground Game a little more between Adrian Killins and Greg McCrae, who has taken up a bigger role in the last month. Cincy is allowing less than 15 points per Game, but that should be taken with a grain of salt.
The bigger worry may be that UCF is allowing 208 rushing yards and 21.2 points per contest despite also having a favorable Schedule. Sure, they’ve played some better teams, but giving up 36 points to FAU and 40 to Temple isn’t great.
At a minimum, the Bearcats will have a chance to cover because they’ll be able to score. Running back Michael Warren will be fed the ball early and often, as has been the case most of the year with 1,082 yards and 17 touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry. Freshman quarterback Desmond Ridder is also plenty mobile with 486 rushing yards and maybe more importantly he only has five interceptions. This offense has the tools to compete no matter what the defense does, but if Cincy’s defense lives up to its numbers, there’s a real upset chance for the Bearcats. That said, it won’t be easy picking against a UCF team that hasn’t lost since 2016 and is playing under the lights at home.
The Bearcats are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last eight Games on grass. The Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall.
Cincinnati ATS Trends
Cinci is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 Conference Games
Cinci is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 Games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10
Cinci is 1-6 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Cinci is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games in November
Cinci is 29-14 ATS in their last 43 Games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10
Cinci is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games on grass
Central Florida ATS Trends
UCF is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games following a ATS loss
UCF is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Games
UCF is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games as a favorite
UCF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games
UCF is 4-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record
UCF is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games in November
UCF is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Games overall
UCF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a home favorite
UCF is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games on grass
Our Pick – Cinci +7.5