Iowa State
at
Texas
CFB Pick
ATS Trends
11/17/18
Surprisingly, this is one of just two Games between ranked teams this weekend. Funny enough, one of them is Iowa State, a team that is on a five-Game winning streak. Texas still opened as -3.5 point home favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Both of these teams still have a small shot at the Big 12 Conference title, but a loss here would be too much to overcome. The Cyclones are rolling and it’s a wonder what could’ve been if they pulled out a win against what is now a bad TCU team. They still beat OK State on the road and destroyed WVU 30-14. The Longhorns have been a little more all over the place and their only legit win may be against Oklahoma. Their last six Games have been decided by seven points or less and this one will likely be the same.
These teams met early last year and it was a defensive battle, which Texas won 17-7 on the road. Both have come a long way since then, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this one was lower scoring, even with UT’s defensive struggles. Either way, the Longhorns have won the last seven meetings and the last three by double digits.
The Texas offense will be the main talking point in this Game because quarterback Sam Ehlinger is on fire with 20 touchdowns and only two picks this season. Even better is that he can run the ball as seen in his 343 rushing yards and nine more touchdowns. The big thing will be to get the ground Game going along with top running back Keaontay Ingram because the Texas defense has been an issue.
The problem is that Iowa State’s defense may be the best in the conference, allowing just 20.4 points and 109 rushing yards per Game. They’ve had some bad Games, but also held Oklahoma to a respectable 37 points and WVU to just 14. The Longhorns will aim to Scoreat least 30 points, but their defense will still need to step up because they’ve been bad, allowing 420 yards per contest. They aren’t getting any better either, giving up at least 34 points in each of the last three.
That plays into Iowa State’s hands as an efficient offense that rarely turns the ball over (three total interceptions). Freshman quarterback Brock Purdy came in for Zeb Noland and still hasn’t lost as a starter. Purdy is completing 68.6% of his passes for 13 touchdowns on 10.87 yards per attempt. Similar to Ehlinger, he’s also mobile and helps running back David Montgomery get the ground Game going. The Cyclones will aim to win the battle of the clock and run the ball as much as possible to keep Ehlinger off the field, it just depends on what the Texas defense can do. If ISU’s defense steps up like it has been, the home team could be in trouble.
The Cyclones are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road Games and 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 Games overall. The Longhorns are 12-5-2 vs. a team with a winning record, but 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these schools played in Texas.
Additional ATS Trends
Iowa St
Iowa St is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Games following a ATS loss.
Iowa St is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 Conference Games.
Iowa St is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Iowa St is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 Games following a straight up win.
Iowa St is 15-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Iowa St is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road Games.
Iowa St is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 Games as an underdog.
Iowa St is 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 Games overall.
Iowa St is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Games as a road underdog.
Iowa St is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Games on turf.
Texas
Texas is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Games as a favorite.
Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS win.
Texas is 12-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texas is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Games in November.
Texas is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Games as a home favorite.
Our Pick – Iowa st +3