Miss State
vs.
Ole Miss
College Football
Egg Bowl Pick
11/22/18
There’s little at stake in this year’s Egg Bowl with Mississippi State at 7-4 and Ole Miss at 5-6 with a bowl ban, but that doesn’t mean these teams don’t want to win. The Bulldogs have had a slightly better season and opened as -9.5 point road favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Revenge will likely be on the mind of Mississippi State after getting beat in this spot last season, falling 31-28 at home. The Scoremay have been close, but it was 31-13 late in the Fourth quarter, mostly because quarterback Nick Fitzgerald was carted off in the first quarter. Things should go different this time given that all seven of MSU’s wins have come by at least 14 points. That includes against Auburn and Texas A&M, but it also can’t be overlooked that they still don’t have a road win in Conference play. While two of those losses came at LSU and Alabama, the other one was 28-7 at Kentucky.
Of course, the issue on the other side is that Ole Miss has lost its last Four Games and its only SEC win was a 37-33 Game at Arkansas, a team that MSU just beat 52-6. The main difference between these teams is that Mississippi State is allowing just 12.8 points per Game compared to Mississippi’s 36.3 allowed. That wretched defense is going to be an issue against Fitzgerald and company.
Fitzgerald isn’t a threat through the air, but he should capitalize against a defense giving up 213 rushing yards per contest. He leads the team with 901 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, but both running backs Aeris Williams and Kylin Hill are averaging at least six yards per carry. After rushing for 294 yards in this matchup last year, it’s possible Miss. State could surpass 300 yards in this one unless the Ole Miss defense figures things out at home.
The other end will be interesting since the only reason Ole Miss won this Game last year was because of long plays, all three touchdowns coming over 45 yards. Assuming that doesn’t happen again, Jordan Ta’amu could find some resistance even though he’s thrown for at least 300 yards in the last six Games. Sure, he’s posting big numbers to top wide outs A.J. Brown and DaMarkus Lodge, but that hasn’t resulted in points against the better defenses they’ve faced. The Rebels will still try and get a ground Game going with SCottie Phillips (questionable due to ankle injury) and Isaiah Woullard. They are averaging five yards per carry as a team, but again, haven’t done much against better defenses. Even with the lead the entire way last year, Ole Miss still only managed 108 rushing yards (sacks included) with 46 of those on one carry.
This Game is in Oxford, but that can only go so far when Mississippi State has the better overall team. Even then, the Rebs have lost their last two at home, both against teams arguably worse than MSU. Still, the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine road Games against a team with a losing home record. The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games and 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 in Conference play. The underdog has covered in five of the last six meetings between these schools and the under is 4-1 in the last five.
Our Pick – Miss State -10