New Orleans Bowl
Pick
Mid Tenn
vs
App State
12/15/18
The New Orleans Bowl may be one of the more exciting matchups of the early bowls and not just because it’s in the Superdome. Both Middle Tennessee and Appalachian State have put together good seasons, leading their respective conferences almost the entire way. The Mountaineers, who won their conference, were a -7 point favorite with an over/under of 50.5 a week before the Game.
Middle Tennessee had more losses mostly because three of its non-Conference Games came against the SEC. Otherwise, its lone C-USA loss in the regular season was by three points against a solid FIU squad and then the championship Game against UAB by two points. And while the Blue Raiders won five of their Games by double digits, Appalachian State was even better with all 10 of its wins by double digits, albeit in a weaker Sun Belt. Its lone loss in Conference play was on short rest against the triple option. Otherwise, the Mountaineers impressively took Penn State to overtime in their opener and never looked back, which is why they are favorites here.
The App. State defense may be the best unit in this Game, allowing 15.7 points and 148 passing yards per Game to go with 5.3 yards per passing attempt, all near the top of the charts. Sure, the Sun Belt doesn’t have a ton of great arms, but it’s worth noting Trace McSorley was just 20-of-35 against them for 229 yards and the top quarterback in the Sun Belt according to numbers (Justice Hansen, Arkansas State) went 25-for-40 with three interceptions in a bad loss.
That’s the main problem for MTSU because its offense is built around quarterback Brent Stockstill, who completed 70.5% of his passes for 28 touchdowns and only eight picks. The running Game was fine, but only managed 3.7 yards per carry and wasn’t the reason the Blue Raiders won any of their Games. Stockstill and top wide out Ty Lee (828 yards, 7 TDs) carved up most defenses in the Conference and if those two can’t get going against this pass defense, there could be trouble for the underdog.
The other reason the Mountaineers were able to dominate opponents is that they have the perfect offense to complement the defense. Zac Thomas isn’t an elite quarterback with 18 passing touchdowns, but he rarely turned it over and had just Four interceptions. That mixes well with running back Darrynton Evans (1,079 yards, 7 TDs), who averaged 6.5 yards per carry, and also Thomas proved to be plenty mobile at 5.7 ypc with 10 more touchdowns. This group was set to fall off after it lost a Four-year starting QB, but Thomas, a sophomore, changed those expectations.
As for the Middle Tennessee defense, it’s been mediocre in almost every category, allowing 4.1 yards per carry and 25.3 points per Game. It’s also the main reason MTSU lost in the C-USA title Game because UAB ran for 225 yards. With Appalachian State built the same way as UAB, but with possibly a better pass defense, the Mountaineers are in a good spot. But the question is if it’s worth more than seven points and whether the loss of head coach SCott Satterfield will change things for App. State. With Satterfield at Louisville, Mark Ivey, the former assistant and defensive line coach will lead the team in the bowl Game.
The Blue Raiders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the Sun Belt and 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl Games. The Mountaineers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on field turf and 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Our Pick – Middle Tennessee St +7