Oklahoma
at
West Virginia
ATS Trends
Free Pick
11/23/18
This Game would’ve had more meaning if West Virginia won last weekend, but both teams would still reach the Big 12 title Game with a win in this matchup. Oklahoma only has one loss, yet if it lost on Friday, would actually finish third in the Conference due to losses against WVU and Texas (assuming the Longhorns beat Kansas). The Sooners opened as -2.5 point road favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
There’s going to be a ton of points in this Game, there’s no doubt about that. Oklahoma is averaging almost 50 points per contest and there’s no reason to believe West Virginia will slow down Kyler Murray and company. The Mountaineers have played good defense at times, but they just gave up 45 points in the late loss to OK State and 41 against Texas a couple weeks prior. On the other side, the Sooners give up points to everyone and the coordinator change hasn’t done anything. They’ve given up at least 40 points in each of the last three Games and most recently let Kansas not only Score40 but run for 348 yards on 9.7 yards per carry.
That run defense is exactly where West Virginia will attack even with Will Grier at quarterback. The best chance to limit Oklahoma is to hold onto the ball as long as possible and that’s where top running back Kennedy McKoy comes in. He had a season-high 148 rushing yards (and 54 receiving yards) and two touchdowns in the loss against OK State and it’s likely he’ll receive a similar amount of touches along with backups Martell Pettaway and Leddie Brown. But if Oklahoma gets out to an early lead, that’s fine too because Grier (33 touchdowns, 9.56 yards per attempt) can do just as much damage with wide outs David Sills, Gary Jennings and Marcus Simms.
There’s a decent possibility neither team punts in this Game and the first one to do so will be put in a hole. The Sooners are favored because Murray has even better numbers than Grier with 11.86 yards per attempt and 34 touchdowns. This offense is all about huge plays as OU’s top three wide outs (Marquise Brown, CeeDee LAmb and Lee Morris) all average at least 17 yards per reception. And while Oklahoma’s top two running backs are injured, freshman Kennedy Brooks has shown he can shoulder the load already with three Games of at least 160 rushing yards. In fact, he’s leading the team with 9.9 yards per carry.
WVU has decent defensive numbers and is allowing only 23.3 points per Game, but that’s not going to matter in this matchup. If this group can’t contain OK State, it’s going to have more trouble trying to stop Murray, especially with one less day to prepare.
The Sooners are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Games following a straight-up win. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home, but 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. The Sooners have covered and the over has hit in the last Four meetings between these schools.
Additional Oklahoma ATS Trends
Oklahoma is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games as a favorite
Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games in November
Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road Games
Oklahoma is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games overall
Additional West Virginia ATS Trends
West Virginia is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 Games following a straight up loss
West Virginia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday Games
West Virginia is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Games following a ATS loss
West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games
Our Pick – West Virginia pk