Penn State
vs.
Indiana
College Football
Pick
10/20/18
Penn State is ready to get back on the winning side of things having lost back-to-back home Games in the final seconds. If it comes up short in this one, it could be a long second half of the season for Nittany Lions fans. They were -14.5 point favorites with an over/under of 61 for the trip to Indiana as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
ACCording to the numbers, Penn State shouldn’t have a problem in this matchup. Indiana has lost to any relevant competition, already falling at home by at least 14 points to both Michigan State and Iowa. Its offense put up points at Ohio State, but the defense has been an issue against good teams allowing 91 points in the last two Games. The Nittany Lions have been slowed down the last couple Games, but this is still a team that scored at least 45 points in the first Four Games of the season.
While it took a while for PSU to get going in the trip to Illinois, it’s hard to see that happening again, especially coming off two losses. The Lions should Scorewith ease, much like last year’s meeting in a 45-14 win. And even then, Indiana’s rush defense actually held PSU to only 39 rushing yards and it was still a blowout. It’s hard to see that happening again as the Hoosiers are allowing almost 160 rushing yards per contest. Miles Sanders should be in for another good performance already with 700 yards and seven touchdowns on 6.7 yards per carry. Trace McSorley has taken somewhat of a step back due to a weaker line in front of him and new receivers, but he’s still one of the better, most experienced quarterbacks in the country even with 7.30 yards per attempt. If they struggle to Scorein this Game, things won’t get better because their next three are against Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin.
since Indiana’s defense isn’t a good thing to bet on, it’ll have to be the offense that keeps the Hoosiers close. That’s not an impossible feat as the Nittany Lions have had issues with their rush defense, allowing 155 yards per Game, one yard less than Indiana. The problem for the Hoosiers is that they’re averaging 4.1 yards per carry and Stevie SCott isn’t exactly a Game breaker at running back, failing to surpass 64 yards in each of the last Four Games. To have a chance, it’s going to be on quarterback Peyton Ramsey to move the ball. He had a career Game with 322 yards and three touchdowns against Ohio State, but he also led the offense to just 24 points in a close win against Rutgers. This PSU defense can be beat, but Ramsey’s turnover problem (seven interceptions) could cost the offense a few points and that may be too much to overcome, similar to the last three matchups that Penn State has won by at least 14 points.
The Nittany Lions are 13-3-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six road Games. The Hoosiers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home Games and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 Games overall. Penn State is 3-0-1 ATS in the last Four meetings between these schools, though the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven.
Our Pick – Penn State -14