Potato Bowl
Pick
BYU
vs.
Western Michigan
12/21/18
The Potato Bowl features two teams that hit their overs on season win totals, yet have lacked consistency throughout the year. BYU is a huge favorite even though it already lost to a MAC team this season. The Cougars were -12 point favorites with an over/under of 48.5 a week before the Game in Boise.
It wasn’t a great season for Western Michigan (4-8 ATS) who was blown out by the best teams on its Schedule and Four of its seven wins came by seven points or less. Still, it closed the season with a 28-21 win over NIU, a team that BYU lost at home to 7-6 earlier in the year. As for BYU (8-4 ATS), it had a much more difficult Schedule that led to nice wins at Arizona and Wisconsin, but it also has that NIU loss putting some doubt into bettors.
The outlier in this Game is that BYU has a decent defense, allowing 21.7 points per Game against a lot of stout offensive running attacks. The Cougars gave up just 3.7 yards per carry and that’s where the problems start for WMU as its offense goes through the running Game. LeVante Bellamy (1,172 yards, 6 TDs) and Jamauri Bogan (702 yards, 15 TDs) have been great, but a lot of their success came against weaker teams. If the Broncos fall behind, it will be up to freshman quarterback Kaleb Eleby, who took over for Jon Wassink in the final Four Games. His overall numbers aren’t good, but he still threw for 285 yards in the most recent win over NIU, so there is some hope.
The problem is that Western’s defense hasn’t stopped anyone, allowing 33.3 points per Game, which includes poor numbers against both the rush and pass. BYU doesn’t have great offensive numbers, but a lot of that is due to Schedule because playing teams like Wisconsin, Washington, Boise and Utah doesn’t set up for offensive production. When faced with weaker defenses like Hawaii or New Mexico State, things were different. But will they be different with questions in the backfield?
BYU has used a slew of running backs this year due to numerous injuries. Top RB Lopini Katoa (423 yards) is questionable with injury, while Squally Canada (412 yards) should return after missing the last two Games. These guys aren’t Game breakers, but the Cougars could easily find room against this porous WMU defense. Otherwise, it’s hard to see freshman quarterback Zach Wilson going off as he’s been more useful on the ground in difficult matchups. If BYU is to cover, it will ride the ground Game, similar to wins over UMass and NMSU.
Western is coming off maybe its best performance of the season, holding NIU to just 2.5 yards per carry. Even if the run defense holds BYU to Four yards per carry, that could be enough to stay competitive because that would allow WMU to use its running Game, as well.
The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on field turf. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight on field turf but haven’t covered in their last Four bowl Games.