South Carolina
at
Clemson
NCAAF Pick
ATS Trends
11/24/18
South Carolina has lost the last Four meetings in this matchup and the last time it was an underdog this big, Clemson won with ease 56-7 two years ago. The Gamecocks have a winning record, but that may not stop the Tigers from running up the score, moving up to a -26.5 point home favorite with an over/under of 58.5 as of Monday at betonline Sportsbook.
Even at home last year, South Carolina still lost by 24 points and all 10 of its points came in the Fourth quarter with the Game out of reach. The Gamecocks have been competitive in most Games this year, but in their lone contest against one of the top teams in the country, they fell 41-17 to Georgia and that came at home. While staying close with A&M and Florida is nice, that’s not the same as playing Clemson.
The Tigers haven’t taken their foot off the pedal since almost losing to Syracuse a couple months ago. They were on a dominant run of reaching 40 points, but slowed down in recent wins, only scoring a combined 62 points in the last two. Of course, they allowed just 13 points in their last two wins and are giving up 12.1 points and 254 yards per Game. Considering South Carolina has just 17 points in the last two meetings, finding the end zone will likely be an issue again.
Quarterback Jake Bentley has improved his numbers slightly with 8.25 yards per attempt and only nine interceptions, but he’s still struggling against better defenses as seen in the three interceptions against Kentucky and two against Georgia. since it’s hard to see any of their running backs finding room against this front and after they averaged 3.2 yards per carry in last year’s meeting, everything will be on Bentley to move the ball. Bryan Edwards and Deebo Samuel are quality wide outs, but it’s hard to put money on a quarterback that hasn’t done enough in Games against better defenses.
On the other end, there’s no reason to think the Gamecocks can slow down Clemson, especially on the road. For starters, they haven’t been good in recent Games, giving up 35 points at Florida and 44 at Ole Miss before that. The one thing that’s better than a season ago for the Tigers is the offense because of quarterback Trevor LAwrence, who has 21 touchdowns and just Four picks. He’s been better than Kelly Bryant and that’s why this team has run away from most opponents. It also helps that the rushing attack has been dominant, averaging 6.6 yards per carry as a team, with Travis Etienne leading the way at 8.5 yards per carry with 1,157 yards and 17 touchdowns.
If South Carolina was playing better defense, it’d be a little easier to back the road team with such a high spread. Yet, in a rivalry that Clemson has controlled the last couple years, this has the makings of another Tigers blowout.
The Gamecocks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road Games and 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall, but haven’t covered in their last Four out of conference. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the under is 6-2 in the last eight between these schools.
Our Pick – Clemson -26