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ORANGE BOWL

1/3/08

KANSAS VS VIRGINIA TECH

 

What a fantastic match up between two teams that deserve to be here. Now, imagine how much more exciting this game would be, if it actually meant something? Imagine if this were a playoff game? With the winner getting a chance to play in the "College Super Bowl", which of course would be played in the week between the NFL championship games and the real Super Bowl. Dare to dream......

On to the game.......we talk alot about schedule strength so we can't give this game a pass. Kansas has played only one team all year that was more than 2 games above .500. That was Missouri, their only loss. Otherwise their schedule is filled with losing teams and 7-6 teams. Not the case for Tech, who ran thru a schedule with names like BC, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia and LSU. We have to give them a pass on the LSU game, in which they were blown out. That was more of a motivational let down than anything else. We think the results would be different a 2nd time around. Other then LSU, Tech beat them all. So, no question, Tech owns the more quality wins. While Kansas lost to Mizzu and squeaked by the toughest games on their schedule.

When you break the game down statistically, you find the number on this game is about right. Tech by 3. But you still have to factor in the stronger schedule. So, perhaps Tech should be close to a 6 point chalk here. But maybe we can take an even more simplistic approach with this game. Simply put, based on past results, Tech is the team more likely to find the end zone, AND keep their opponent out of the end zone. Tech held just about everyone they faced to 16 points or less. Not so with Kansas, who gave up 36 to Mizzu, 28 to Oklahoma State, 39 to Nebraska, and 24 to Kansas State.

So far this Bowl season, when the public has all been on one side of a game, they have lost. Last nights West Virginia game was another example of that, as bettors both sharp and square bet Oklahoma like they knew the score already. This game tonight is another example of lopsided betting action, as it's been one of the most one way bet games of the Bowl season. Everyone is on Tech. But even the public wins once in awhile.

Perhaps another way to look in this one is the total. We're talking about two defenses here that were top 10 defenses in the entire nation and again, note that when Kansas stepped up in class a bit to play Colorado and Texas A&M they struggled to score 19 points in each. This Tech defense he a helluva lot better than A&M's and Colorado.

We're more excited to watch this game, than to bet it. It should be entertaining. Nothing strong here, but we'll throw out two 1* Opinions here.

1* Va Tech Money line -150

1* Under 52

 

Just to recap our Bowl results this far - Another profitable Bowl season for the Bettorsworld key releases so far. No, we didn't sweep the board and crush the books this year as we frequently do, however, we did win when we had to and are currently on the plus side of the ledger.

Overall we're 14-12

1* 2-2

2* 7-5

3* 2-3

5* 3-2

The key has been hitting our 5* plays. Overall, on a star basis, we are 37-31 for 54.4%

Hopefully we pick up a peanut tonight and then hit the grand finale next Monday with the Ohio State - LSU winner - Stay Tuned!

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