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Exploring the Opportunities of Alternate NFL Lines &
Smaller Markets
It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the sheer number of offerings at Pinnacle
Sportsbook. For football alone, bettors have the choice of nearly 30 markets,
including halftimes, quarters, props and futures for several different leagues
including the NFL, NCAA, CFL and even the CIS Vanier Cup. Many players staunchly
ignore everything except vanilla sides and totals markets. While these players
are certainly saving money by taking advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbetting’s -104
reduced juice, they’re also missing out on some potentially profitable
alternative markets.
Armed with reduced juice, smart bettors are in a position take on the familiar
NFL offerings, but smaller markets like NFL Alternate Spreads and NCAA Div-IAA
sides, can be even easier to pillage with low vig. While the wise guys are
pounding bigger markets into shape, these less-played promotions remain less
efficient, and are ideal prey for smaller players.
In the NFL, Pinnacle Sports offers betting on four different sets of alternate
lines: alternate low, alternate high, extra low and extra high. These lines use
spreads far removed from the normal line that you cannot reach via the unique
drop-down buy/sell menu at Pinnacle Sports Book. For example, if the line for
Chicago was -2 ½ (-115), we might also offer the Bears at -7.5 (+230), +3.5
(-230), -10.5 (+320) and +7.5 (-385).
While you can handicap and play alternate lines just like a normal line, there
are a few situations when they may be vastly superior to the standard spread.
There are two factors that make getting extra points by paying more juice
advantageous: (1) when the team you are backing is very consistent, or (2) when
the game total is low.
(1) If you have a match-up between two defensive teams that run the ball (like
San Diego, Dallas or Jacksonville), the game is more likely to land near the
spread, making those extra points you bought more valuable than in a regular
game.
(2) When should you play the long shot, giving up more points for a high-paying
moneyline? Look for games with high totals, or a match-up between two teams that
play inconsistently – especially pass-oriented offenses. In match-ups of teams
like Miami, Arizona and Pittsburgh, they’re as likely to win or lose by a high
margin in a mismatch. Giving up extra points for a higher payout is a good way
to cash in on the volatility of inconsistent teams.
Rich pickings can also be found betting the smaller leagues offered at Pinnacle
Sports Betting. With over 120 Div-IAA sides, the linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports
simply don’t have the time to analyze each game and team in-depth. Shrewd
handicappers focus on a favorite conference like the Ivy League, which gives
them an advantage over the house. If you’re a specialist in one conference and
know the players, coaches, playing styles, injuries and suspensions for all the
teams in that conference, you have invaluable insight on match-ups featuring
those teams that bookmakers like PinnacleSports.com, simply do not.
What are our players betting now?
Clemson -17 -108 v. N.C. State
The Tigers opened at -13 (-105) and quickly became a public favorite. The sharps
didn’t have a clear opinion on this game and the public kept betting Clemson up.
While N.C. State has a mere 3-6 record, most of their games have been very
competitive with only one loss by more than eight points.
Wake Forest +8.5 +101 v. Florida State
Every once in awhile, we look at one of our openers and wince at the lopsided
action. This happened after we opened the Seminoles at -3.5 (-105) and the early
sharps played FSU. Fortunately, we can get a good line fairly cheaply due to
lower limits earlier in the week. Even after the line stabilized, we’re still
seeing sharps on Florida State, while the public is strongly on Wake Forest.
New Orleans +4 -102 v. Pittsburgh
The Saints opened as a 6-point underdog, and were quickly bet down by the
public. We took two bets on the Saints for every one on the Steelers. Despite
the public sentiment, the sharps are evenly split on this game with no change of
opinion of note as the line dropped.
Chicago +3 -125 v. New York
We opened the Bears at -1 (-112), and took a storm of public money. After
Chicago became an underdog at +2.5 and +3, the sharps started lining up on the
Bears. The public is quick to react to a single disappointing performance, and
seems to have forgotten that the Bears have the biggest point differential in
the NFL, outscoring their opponents by an average of 16.8 points per game.
Denver/Oakland Over 33 -105
The Raiders have an unusual combination that often makes playing the “Under”
very tempting. In their eight games this year, they’ve only scored six offensive
touchdowns. The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL for offensive yardage at
228 yards per game and points scored with 11.5 per game. But… Oakland has the #2
passing defense, allowing just 160 passing yards per game. Taken together with a
match-up against a strong Broncos’ defense, it’s no surprise that this game has
the lowest total of the week. Our opener of 37 took hits mainly from sharps
playing the under.
