Since the first issue of
the Pinnacle Pulse, we’ve focused a lot of attention on the methods and
selections of “sharp” players. Each week we highlight the markets where they
are most active. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we consider a
‘sharp player’ to be a client
that is consistently on the right side of a game, gets the best of the
number and consequently wins over the long-term.
Therefore it is
reasonable for bettors to ask how accurate these “sharp plays” have been,
but before going back and checking, bear in mind two bits of advice we have
repeatedly stressed: 1) always play at the best price and 2) pass on a game
if sharps have conflicting opinions at the same price. With these two rules
in mind, you would have gone a whopping 47-31-2 following sharp plays since
we began listing them last year.
Handicapping sports is a
search for the truth. That truth is the chance of a given team winning on a
given day. Professional players typically set their own line before looking
at the market prices, and know what edge they expect at any given price.
They view investing in a game as a simple commodity – they will buy either
team if the price is right. In many instances, bettors will play both sides
of the same game due to line moves or new information.
Many handicappers set
their original line, and use an ROR (return on risk) hurdle to determine
plays. For example, if a model predicts that Team A will beat Team B 75% of
the time in a match-up, that player might look for a bet priced for Team A
to win just 70% of the time, or Team B to win 20% of the time. Once that
piece of truth is found – Team A’s win percentage for that match-up – the
sharp player bets it only if “the price is right”. This might be by playing
Team A at -233 on the moneyline, or making an “equivalent” play identified
with conversions, such as Team A -5½. That same player would just as happily
play Team B at +400 or +8 points.
In most games the market
price will be close enough to the handicapper’s fair price to suggest that
the game is a “pass”. Due to the commission a bettor must pay on each wager
(traditionally 10% at most sports books), there’s a dead zone where neither
side can be played profitably. For example, a sportsbook might offer both
sides of an NFL game at Pick’em -110. In that instance, no play could be
profitably made unless a team was expected to win more than (110/210) =
52.4%. With traditional 20 cent lines, there is a fairly wide dead zone at
most other bookmakers.
There are two obvious
ways to reduce the impact of the dead zone. The simplest is to open an
account with a reduced-juice sportsbook like Pinnacle Sports Betting. With
Pinnacle’s -104 style pricing on NFL sides, the dead zone is much smaller
and a team expected to win just 51% could be profitable. Pinnacle Sports’
reduced juice not only has more favorable prices with 8 cent lines on NFL
sides, but you have more possible plays as well.
The second way to reduce
the dead zone further is to use multiple sportsbooks and shop lines. If you
have an array of five plus sportsbooks, which includes a reduced juice
sports book like Pinnacle Sports, you can frequently reduce the dead zone
further – in some instances eliminating it entirely (e.g. if you can play
either side at +100). When professional players count their profits in terms
of 2-4% of their total betting volume, shopping to get the best number will
frequently make the difference between a winning or losing season.
Modern Caveman recently
contacted AskTheBook and asked:
Should a bettor really be taking advice
from a bookie? In chess, I used to say "never listen to your opponent.”
My advice would be,
“Trust, but verify”. In sports betting, like stock investing, you should
never put money at risk on the strength of anything ANYONE says until you’ve
researched the subject to the best of your abilities. This is especially
true if your source has a vested interest.
The aim of The Pinnacle
Pulse is to help educate players about the benefits of low juice by
providing accurate information that helps improve the handicapping skills of
prospective and existing Pinnacle Sports players. This is thanks in no small
part to contributors such as Daringly and the Pinnacle Sports oddsmakers and
line managers. It is our belief that if we can improve the sophistication of
players and raise the awareness of Pinnacle Sports, more bettors will chose
Pinnacle and benefit from our pricing that offers up to 60% better value on
NFL sides than other bookmakers.
What are our players
betting?
Dallas +3 -112 v. Seattle
Both teams finished the
regular seasons below expectations – Seattle as reigning NFC champion and
Dallas as an early Super Bowl favorite. Both lost three out of their final
four games, landing Seattle and Dallas the #4 and #5 seeds, respectively.
The Cowboys opened at +3
(-114). The public leaned on Seattle by a ratio of 3-to-2, due at least in
part to Dallas’s recent humiliation at the hands of the hapless Lions.
Meanwhile, the sharps clearly favor Dallas and have been taking the points.
New
York Giants +7 -103 v. Philadelphia
The Eagles have finished
the season playing inspired football winning their last five games. Jeff
Garcia led the Eagles offense after stepping in for injured Donovan McNabb,
throwing 10 TDs to just 2 INTs. His 95.8 passer rating would make him the #4
QB in the league. The Giants started at 6-2, but then dropped six of their
last eight games to limp into the playoffs.
When you have two teams
moving in opposing directions, statistical handicappers will often disagree
on a game. One approach is to weight all games of the season evenly. Another
approach is to weight recent games more heavily than ones earlier in the
season. Each of these styles will strongly favor opposite teams in this
match-up.
In our most heavily
traded game of the week, we opened the Giants at +6 (-106). The line crept
up as bettors took the Eagles by a 3-to-2 ratio. Our professional players
are split on this match-up, possibly due to their statistical methodology.
We are also seeing one-sided sharp action teasing the Eagles down.
Florida +7 -105 v. Ohio State
Florida will try to
maintain a trend seen in the last four National Championships: the underdog
winning outright. Another trend that has extended even further is based on
defense. In National Championship games, the team whose defense allows fewer
yards per game has won the last five. In this match-up, this also favors
Florida, which allows 269 yards per game versus 273 yards per game for Ohio
State.
We opened the Buckeyes
at -7 (-105) and the public has favored Ohio State, backing them over
Florida by a margin of 3-to-2. Our sharps have been split fairly evenly on
this game, though we have seen some unusual point-buying activity with some
of our more successful players buying Florida up to +7.5.
