Top Sportsbooks
Sign Up with YouWager and get our CBB Score Prediction Model FREE! Click Here! |
Sports Services Break Even Percentages
When looking
into subscribing to a service you need to consider the cost of the service,
plus the capital requirements and the winning percentage necessary for you to
make a profit. The following charts
should help in this regard. We in no
way recommend paying a lot of money for a service and then playing a lot in
order to make a profit. Everyone needs
to establish a bankroll of cash that they are comfortable with potentially
losing. This needs to be purely
“excess” capital.
The first chart indicates the winning percentage needed just to BREAK-EVEN for services charging various monthly amounts with varying numbers of plays for $50, $100 & $250 players. NOTE: The “high rollers” need a much lower winning percentage because they risk more on each game. The best investment is a little of your own time, because “FREE” requires the absolute lowest winning percentage to break-even.
|
|
$/BET |
FREE |
$100 |
$200 |
$300 |
$400 |
$500 |
|
6 plays/wk |
$50 |
52.4% |
56.3% |
60.3% |
64.3% |
68.3% |
72.2% |
|
6 plays/wk |
$100 |
52.4% |
54.4% |
56.3% |
58.3% |
60.3% |
62.3% |
|
6 plays/wk |
$250 |
52.4% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
56.3% |
|
8 plays/wk |
$50 |
52.4% |
55.4% |
58.3% |
61.3% |
64.3% |
67.3% |
|
8 plays/wk |
$100 |
52.4% |
53.9% |
55.4% |
56.8% |
58.3% |
59.8% |
|
8 plays/wk |
$250 |
52.4% |
53.0% |
53.4% |
54.2% |
54.8% |
55.4% |
|
10 plays/wk |
$50 |
52.4% |
54.8% |
57.1% |
59.5% |
61.9% |
64.3% |
|
10 plays/wk |
$100 |
52.4% |
53.6% |
54.8% |
56.0% |
57.1% |
58.3% |
|
10 plays/wk |
$250 |
52.4% |
52.9% |
53.3% |
53.8% |
54.3% |
54.8% |
|
12 plays/wk |
$50 |
52.4% |
54.4% |
56.3% |
58.3% |
60.3% |
62.3% |
|
12 plays/wk |
$100 |
52.4% |
53.4% |
54.4% |
55.4% |
56.3% |
57.3% |
|
12 plays/wk |
$250 |
52.4% |
52.8% |
53.2% |
53.6% |
54.0% |
54.4% |
If you’d like to make $100 profit per month move one column to the right to see the winning percentage required. Thus, if a service charges $400 per month and gives out 8 plays per week, in order for a $100 player to make a $100 profit the service would need to pick 59.8%. For this same service to make a $100 profit for a $50 player, the service would need to win 67.3% of their plays.
Since most legitimate services win between 55% and 60% of their games, it is almost impossible for a small player to make a profit if the cost of the service is over $200 per month.
Another way to look at this, is the amount of money one needs in his/her bankroll. Since you shouldn’t play more than 2% or 3% on any one game, only 20% to 30% of your bankroll should be wagered in any one week. This number should be slightly higher when you’re winning and slightly lower when you’re losing.
Below is a chart which shows the amount of money one must wager EACH WEEK in order to BREAK-EVEN given a services’ monthly fee and overall winning percentage. This hold true regardless of how much you play on each game. Once again, if your goal is to make a profit, move over one column to the right for each $100 per month gain.
|
|
$100 |
$200 |
$300 |
$400 |
$500 |
|
54% |
$735 |
$1470 |
$2205 |
$2941 |
$3676 |
|
56% |
$329 |
$658 |
$987 |
$1316 |
$1645 |
|
58% |
$212 |
$424 |
$636 |
$848 |
$1059 |
|
60% |
$156 |
$312 |
$469 |
$625 |
$781 |
|
62% |
$124 |
$248 |
$371 |
$495 |
$619 |
|
65% |
$94 |
$189 |
$283 |
$378 |
$472 |
Thus, if a service charges $400 per month and picks an excellent 62%, you would need to wager $495 each week to break even. You would also need to have a bankroll of at least $1500. In order to make a $100 profit you would need to risk $619 each week. For a $50 player, this means wagering on 10 to 13 games each weekend. Many services with such high winning percentages lay out a small number of plays. If this is the case, a small player cannot profit.
Keep in mind that the more games you play the lower your winning percentage will be. As a point of reference, the winner of Bookies’ Hell’s 1997 professional handicappers contest won with a winning percentage of 58% on about 14 plays per week. The winner of the amateur contest had a winning percentage of 62%, but on an average of just 3 plays per week.
