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Sports Services Break Even Percentages

When looking into subscribing to a service you need to consider the cost of the service, plus the capital requirements and the winning percentage necessary for you to make a profit. The following charts should help in this regard. We in no way recommend paying a lot of money for a service and then playing a lot in order to make a profit. Everyone needs to establish a bankroll of cash that they are comfortable with potentially losing. This needs to be purely “excess” capital.

The first chart indicates the winning percentage needed just to BREAK-EVEN for services charging various monthly amounts with varying numbers of plays for $50, $100 & $250 players. NOTE: The “high rollers” need a much lower winning percentage because they risk more on each game. The best investment is a little of your own time, because “FREE” requires the absolute lowest winning percentage to break-even.

	$/BET	FREE	$100	$200	$300	$400	$500
6 plays/wk	$50	52.4%	56.3%	60.3%	64.3%	68.3%	72.2%
6 plays/wk	$100	52.4%	54.4%	56.3%	58.3%	60.3%	62.3%
6 plays/wk	$250	52.4%	53.2%	54.0%	54.8%	55.6%	56.3%
8 plays/wk	$50	52.4%	55.4%	58.3%	61.3%	64.3%	67.3%
8 plays/wk	$100	52.4%	53.9%	55.4%	56.8%	58.3%	59.8%
8 plays/wk	$250	52.4%	53.0%	53.4%	54.2%	54.8%	55.4%
10 plays/wk	$50	52.4%	54.8%	57.1%	59.5%	61.9%	64.3%
10 plays/wk	$100	52.4%	53.6%	54.8%	56.0%	57.1%	58.3%
10 plays/wk	$250	52.4%	52.9%	53.3%	53.8%	54.3%	54.8%
12 plays/wk	$50	52.4%	54.4%	56.3%	58.3%	60.3%	62.3%
12 plays/wk	$100	52.4%	53.4%	54.4%	55.4%	56.3%	57.3%
12 plays/wk	$250	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%	54.0%	54.4%

If you’d like to make $100 profit per month move one column to the right to see the winning percentage required. Thus, if a service charges $400 per month and gives out 8 plays per week, in order for a $100 player to make a $100 profit the service would need to pick 59.8%. For this same service to make a $100 profit for a $50 player, the service would need to win 67.3% of their plays.

Since most legitimate services win between 55% and 60% of their games, it is almost impossible for a small player to make a profit if the cost of the service is over $200 per month.

Another way to look at this, is the amount of money one needs in his/her bankroll. Since you shouldn’t play more than 2% or 3% on any one game, only 20% to 30% of your bankroll should be wagered in any one week. This number should be slightly higher when you’re winning and slightly lower when you’re losing.

Below is a chart which shows the amount of money one must wager EACH WEEK in order to BREAK-EVEN given a services’ monthly fee and overall winning percentage. This hold true regardless of how much you play on each game. Once again, if your goal is to make a profit, move over one column to the right for each $100 per month gain.

	$100	$200	$300	$400	$500
54%	$735	$1470	$2205	$2941	$3676
56%	$329	$658	$987	$1316	$1645
58%	$212	$424	$636	$848	$1059
60%	$156	$312	$469	$625	$781
62%	$124	$248	$371	$495	$619
65%	$94	$189	$283	$378	$472

Thus, if a service charges $400 per month and picks an excellent 62%, you would need to wager $495 each week to break even. You would also need to have a bankroll of at least $1500. In order to make a $100 profit you would need to risk $619 each week. For a $50 player, this means wagering on 10 to 13 games each weekend. Many services with such high winning percentages lay out a small number of plays. If this is the case, a small player cannot profit.

Keep in mind that the more games you play the lower your winning percentage will be. As a point of reference, the winner of Bookies’ Hell’s 1997 professional handicappers contest won with a winning percentage of 58% on about 14 plays per week. The winner of the amateur contest had a winning percentage of 62%, but on an average of just 3 plays per week.