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THE PROPHET HANDICAPS THE PRIDE OPEN WEIGHT GRAND
PRIX SEMI FINALS:
The Japanese mixed martial arts organization PRIDE presents the semi final round
of their open weight Grand Prix tournament on 9/10/06. Pinnacle posted lines
for the fights several weeks ago, and I've been very surprised to see them move
the way they have despite mine and my clients' plays on the other side. This
line movement is to your advantage, however, and you can now get these fights at
very attractive prices. If these plays split we've made a small profit; if both
work out as I see them it'll be a big payday.
Josh Barnett vs. Antonio Rodrigio Nogueira
One of the two main events at PRIDE--FINAL COUNTDOWN ABSOLUTE pits Josh "The
Baby Faced Assasin" Barnett against Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu specialist Antoni
Rodrigio Nogueira, affectionaly known as "The Minotaur". Of the four fighters
remaining in the Open Weight Grand Prix, Barnett is sort of the overlooked
variable in the equation and the betting line is reflective of this: Nogueira
is currently a -206 favorite at Pinnacle.
We'll start by discussing the favorite: Antonio Rodrigio Nogueria enters this
fight with a professional MMA record of 28-3-1 and his three losses have been to
top flight competition to say the least. Two of the losses, and the one NC were
against arguably the baddest man walking the face of the earth, Fedor Emelienko.
His other loss was way back in 2000, a split decision verdict to Dan Henderson.
Nogueira is obviously a ground fighting monster with arguably the best
submission skills of any heavyweight fighter in the world. At 6'3", 231 pounds
to say that Nogueira is a formidable opponent is an understatement.
Physically, however, Josh Barnett is at least the equal of Nogueira at 6'3" 250
lbs. A native of Seattle, Washington, Barnett began his career as a
professional wrestler with New Japan Pro Wrestling. This fact should not be
viewed as a negative--the Japanese pro wrestling is a drastically different
animal than its American counterpart, with serious physical demands and a
grueling training regimen. Barnett's MMA record stands at 18-3 with his losses
also coming two top notch opponents. Two were to Mirko "Cro Cop" Fillipovic,
one by decision and the other by submission when Barnett suffered a freak
shoulder injury that kept him out of action for over six months. His other loss
was in early 2001 to an in his prime Pedro Rizzo. Barnett is a formidable
ground fighter himself, a decent submission fighter and has arguably the
superior standup game.
Aside from his injury tapout to Mirko, Barnett has never been submitted. This
is important against Nogueira, since his best route to victory is by
submission: he's only been credited with three TKO victories in his career, all
against vastly inferior competition. If he can't get the submission, Nogueira
will need to win by decision. He usually does this by dominating the ground
game, but that will be a challenge against a guy who's actually bigger than he
is. Barnett could very well hold his own on the ground, and that's where
Nogueira will want to keep it rather than try to compete standup against the
more powerful striker.
Essentially, this fight is a toss up and as such the +186 price on Barnett is
very attractive.
JOSH BARNETT +186 over Antonio Rodrigio Nogueira
FEATURED SPORTSBOOK
Mirko "Cro Cop" Fillipovic vs. Wanderlei Silva
The other co-main event pits two of the most dangerous strikers in the world
against each other. Mirko "Cro Cop" Fillipovic is a former Croatian
anti-terrorism officer (hence his nickname) who began his career as a
professional kick boxer. His left high kick is arguably the single most
devestating weapon in the sport and has ended a number of his fights. Mirko is
also a decent puncher--just ask Bob Sapp's orbital bone about that. Mirko
enters this fight with a professional MMA record of 19-4-2, and his four losses
reveal what I consider to be his weaknesses as a fighter. He's lost by KO to
the powerful but limited Kevin Randleman, by submission to Antonio Rodrigo
Nogueira and by decision to both the monsterous Fedor Emelienko and the not so
monsterous Mark Hunt. Mirko is extremely vulnerable on the ground, but to his
credit he's excellent at defending against takedowns. He also has a tendency to
"headhunt" and look for an opening for a knockout kick.
On the other side of the ring is the man I consider to be the second baddest
individual walking the planet (behind the aforemention Fedor Emelienko):
Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva. Silva has not lost by stoppage since early
in his career--one of those was a stoppage for a cut--and not since he lost by
TKO in 1998 to Vitor Belfort, who was one of the best in the world at the time.
Since then, he's only lost three times--all by decision--to Mark Hunt, Tito
Ortiz and Ricardo Arona. Silva may not have any single weapon as lethal as
Mirko's high left kick but that hasn't stopped him from being considered by many
to be the best all alround striker in MMA.
Like Mirko, Silva would prefer to fight standup but he's far from helpless on
the ground--he's a black belt in Brazillian Jiu Jitsu, something they don't
award to just anyone. Thanks to his Muay Thai background he's also a superior
inside striker and is very adept at using his knees to pummel his foe. Silva
has a chin of granite, and in this fight that's a huge advantage since Mirko's
ability to take a punch is unproven at best. Silva does give up three inches in
hight to Mirko, but I don't really think that'll be a factor here.
With all due respect to Mirko's devestating "one punch"...er..."one kick"
knockout power, Silva is the better all around fighter. He's got a more
complete standup game, is far superior on the ground, and I consider him to be
generally tougher all around. If Mirko tries to fight defensively, Silva has
more weapons to gain a decision victory. I've liked Silva all along in this
matchup, and was very surprised to see Pinnacle open the fight with Mirko a
favorite (he's now a -184 choice). In my opinion, they've got the wrong man
favored and Silva wins either by decision if Mirko tries to play it safe and by
TKO if he doesn't.
WANDERLEI SILVA +174 over Mirko "Cro Cop" Fillipovic
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