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Week 3 NFL Picks

9/27/09

It will be week 4 in the NFL before we'll be ready to start with the Key Releases as our approach requires at least 4 weeks of stats to work with. However, we'll go through the NFL card for Sunday with a few comments on each of the games. Also, don't forget to check out the Black Cat and his quest for 60% NFL winners.

Titans +2 over Jets - Heck, the fans in New York are already printing up their Super Bowl shirts! Listening to WFAN in New York makes for some great comedy as these Jets fans call up with such hope in their voices. Rex Ryan is talking like he's already won something. Please. The Jets have a long way to go. The Titans are 0-2, they are desperate, and they are just about the exact same team that won 13 games a year ago. The Jets come back to earth in a huge letdown week. Titans +2.5 as they win straight up.

Jags +2.5 over Texans - Feel inclined to take any points available with another 0-2 team desperate for a win. Jags dropped games to Indy and Arizona but should fare a little better against the Texans.

Chiefs +8 over Eagles - Going with the better QB here. We'll take Cassel over Vick or Kolb any day. Chiefs dominated the Raiders but came up on the short end of the stick a week ago. Vick will make some mistakes here. You don't sit out a couple of years and pick right up where you left off.

Ravens -13.5 over Browns - Just can't make a case for the Browns. These teams are night and day. In the NFL, the winner of the game covers the spread something like 80% of the time. In other words, just concentrate on picking straight up winners. Doesn't take too much concentration to pick the Ravens here.

Giants -6.5 over Bucs - Same theory in this game as the game above. Giants simply the better team. On a 19-5 spread run, plenty of offense and the Bucs have lost 6 straight going back to last season.

Lions +6.5 over Redskins - The Lions are going to win eventually. Wouldn't bet this one for real money, but for monopoly money we'll go out on a limb and take the Lions to break through against a Redskin team having trouble offensively.

Rams +6.5 over Packers - Defense wins this one for the Rams in their home opener.

49ers +7 at Vikings - 49ers have held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 16 points or less. If they do that here, there's plenty of room for a cover. 49ers a much more impressive 2-0 than the Vikings, who have beaten the Browns and Lions to the Niners wins over the Cards and Seahawks.

Falcons +4.5 over Pats - Pats could easily be 0-2. Still wearing a bulls eye because, well because they are the Pats. Falcons meanwhile are quietly 2-0 and Matt Ryan, who looks like the next Tom Brady, returns to the New England area where he played his college ball (BC)

Bears -1.5 over Seahawks - If Hassleback goes, he won't be near 100%. Cutler finding his rhythm and figures to improve on a weekly basis. We'll take the better QB here.

Saints -6 over Bills - Tough to bet against this Saints offense. We'll defer to the "just pick the straight up winner and you'll cover rule" here.

Chargers -5.5 over Dolphins - Dolphins lose despite holding the ball for 45 minutes. Unreal. That won't be the case this week. Revenge affair for the Chargers here and simply can't see them dropping two in a row at home.

Steelers -3.5 over Bengals - Steelers have one 8 straight at Cinci. Make it 9.

Broncos -2 over Raiders - Granted it's only the Browns and Bengals, but the Broncos defense is looking good and they simply look like a better team than the Raiders after two weeks. With the number -2 we're just asking for a straight up win here. Raiders got a win last week but didn't deserve it. We'll lay the deuce here.

Cards -2.5 over Colts - Colts magically got out of Miami with a win last week after only having the ball for 15 minutes. The short week of practice plus the trip out west will take it's toll here. Kurt Warner looking as good as Peyton and for those with short term memory loss, the Cards played in the Super Bowl last year.

That's it for this week. If we had to pick some games that stand out above the rest we'd take the Titans, Ravens, 49ers, Bears, Broncos and Cards. Good Luck this week and look for our NFL Key Releases starting in week 5.

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