Ohio State
vs.
Michigan State
Big 10
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/8/14
There are a few Games this weekend that have College Football Playoff implications. This is one of them and it’s becoming one of the best matchups in the Big Ten over the last few years. Michigan State ruined Ohio State’s perfect season in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game and also their shot at the National Championship. The Spartans, coming off a bye, are favored by -3.5 points at home for this one at betonline.
This is the fifth straight matchup in which the spread is less than six points between these teams. In last year’s meeting, the Spartans surprised Braxton Miller and the undefeated Buckeyes winning as a 5.5-point underdog. The MSU defense was something new for Ohio State, and the Bucks struggled all Game long, whereas Connor Cook tossed for 304 yards and three touchdowns.
While there may be a revenge factor here, both teams know what’s at stake. The winner not only has the inside route to the Conference championship Game, but also to the final Four in the College Football Playoff. The loser will have two losses and be out of the picture completely.
since losing to Virginia Tech early in the year, Ohio State has reeled off six straight wins, although hasn’t faced much competition. They almost hit a snag at Penn State a couple weeks ago, but managed a win in overtime.
Much like the Buckeyes, Michigan State also has won six straight since losing at Oregon. They also haven’t really faced much competition, although Nebraska did give them a scare towards the end of the Game. But in all, the Spartans dominated the Cornhuskers most of the way and every other team in the conference.
Despite MSU being known for their defense, this Game should be higher scoring, much like last year’s contest (34-24). The Spartans haven’t been as great (as previous seasons) on the defensive end this year, slipping up at times, most notably against Oregon. The same can be said about the Ohio State defense, which hasn’t really played a good offense all year.
J.T. Barrett has great numbers for Ohio State, but in a tough environment against a good defense at Penn State, he struggled. Barrett finished with 74 passing yards and two interceptions in that contest, but still ran for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Playing at Michigan State will have a similar amount of difficulty, if not more. The Buckeyes will need to get the run Game going if they want to have a chance to win. That means Ezekiel Elliott (709 yards) and Curtis Samuel need to have good Games. Relying on Barrett’s arm may not be the best route for this one.
As for the OSU defense, this will probably be their toughest test of the season. Michigan State’s offense is right behind Ohio State’s scoring wise at 45.5 points per Game.
The Spartans are built on the ground Game behind Jeremy LAngford (841 yards, 10 TDs) and Nick Hill, and it will be an important area as the OSU defense has been able to stop the run for most of the year. That’s where Connor Cook (17 TDs) and wide receiver Tony Lippett (889 yards, 9 TDs). They are one of the better duos in the country, and make MSU a more balanced offense.
This is the biggest Game of the Big Ten season, maybe even more so than the Conference championship Game, tensions will be high.
The Buckeyes have covered in five of their last six, with the non-cover coming at Penn State. As expected, the Buckeyes have mostly positive trends, but nothing that stands out too much. The Spartans have covered in six of their last seven home Games and are 10-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools.
We are still considering using one of these sides as a Key Release so no play on the side here. While we rarely use totals as a Key Release, there may be some value in this Game on the under. The total here was as high as 63.5 at one book and has now settled in at 55.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook. Last years Game saw 58 total points scored and these two defenses are NOT as good as last years. Our model predicts 65+ points in this one so we’ll take a stab at the over 55.5.