Sugar Bowl Pick
Ohio State
vs.
Alabama
1/1/15
The second College Football Playoff semifinal Game of New Year’s Day pits two storied programs and coaches against each other. Alabama is aiming for their Fourth national title Game in six seasons, while Ohio State is trying to get back to the big Game for the first time since the 2007 season. The Crimson Tide are a large -9.5 point favorite in the Sugar Bowl.
It’s Nick Saban against Urban Meyer, which brings plenty of excitement with it.
Both of these teams finished 12-1, winning their respective Conference title Games and ending the season on big streaks, but Alabama’s record is arguably more impressive. Playing in the SEC, the Tide needed wins over LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn along the way. Their lone loss was at Ole Miss back on Oct. 4. This is a team that improved steadily on both sides of the ball through the season.
Ohio State is a bit of a different story, having to deal with a new QB in JT Barrett early on, which led to a loss to Virginia Tech. But once he figured things out, this was one of the best offenses in the nation. The Buckeyes went on to win Games on offense alone, but the defense struggled along the way. And then Barrett went down and redshirt sophomore Cardale Jones took over at quarterback in the Big Ten title Game and they destroyed Wisconsin 59-0. That win along with back-to-back road wins over Michigan State and Minnesota were the highlights of their season.
Alabama is understandably favored in this Game as they probably have the most complete team in the country. The defense allows less than 17 points per Game and the offense has really come on late in the year, scoring 55 on Auburn and 42 on Missouri the last two Games.
Ohio State’s defense hasn’t really stopped many good teams this year, although they are coming off a dominant performance over one-dimensional Wisconsin. Alabama should have the edge on offense and with Cardale Jones leading OSU, they could have the edge on defense too.
No one gave respect to Jones entering the Wisconsin Game, mainly because he was the team’s third-string QB and no one knew how he played. Instead, he was excellent, tossing for 257 yards and three touchdowns. His build is similar to that of Barrett’s which means he can be a factor in the ground Game as well. The only way Ohio State has a shot against Alabama though, is if Jones succeeds through the air again because that’s where Bama’s main weakness is. Receivers like Devin Smith (799 yards, 11 TDs) and Michael Thomas (680 yards, 8 TDs) need to play big. It would help if RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,402 yards, 12 TDs) found room on the ground as well, but he’ll be going against one of the best run defenses there is.
The Buckeyes will need lots of help from their studs on defense, DE Joey Bosa and CB Doran Grant. Those guys need to make plays to limit what Alabama does.
Grant will probably line up exclusively with the nation’s top wide receiver Amari Cooper (115 receptions, 1,656 yards, 14 TDs) and that could decide this Game alone. Grant usually defends the opposing teams top WR and has done well against guys like MSU’s Tony Lippett previously this year.
Blake Sims leads the offense and is having a great season through the air (26 TDs, 7 INTs) and running when needed (6 TDs). He’s improved through the year and he looks early and often for Cooper. The problem is that Alabama also has a great ground Game behind T.J Yeldon (932 yards, 10 TDs) and Derrick Henry (895 yards, 10 TDs). If one of those guys is struggling, the other can easily step in and run over defenders.
This Game kind of depends on what Cardale Jones can do in his second straight start. If Ohio State can’t find room running the ball, it will fall on Jones’ arm, which is still a bit of an unknown.
The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-Conference Games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and have lost 10 straight against the SEC in postseason Games. The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl Games and have covered in Four straight against the Big Ten. The Tide are also 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight non-Conference Games.