Tulsa
vs.
Temple
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/11/14
Temple will host Tulsa on Saturday afternoon at 12 noon est. in a Game that probably not too many people care about with the exception of Temple fans, Tulsa fans and bettors. Temple opened as a -12.5 favorite at betonline, which is the very first book to post lines each week and was hammered all the way up to -16.5 where it currently sits.
Temple comes in at 3-1 with their loss coming to Navy in a Game they trailed 31-14 in the 3rd quarter. Their worst performance of the season. Their wins came over Vandy, Delaware State and UCONN. Tulsa comes in at 1-4 with their lone win coming in Game 1 against Tulane. They have since lost 4 in a row at the hands of Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, Texas State and Colorado State.
Both teams have played fairly weak Schedules. This is important to consider when handicapping this Game. Give the Schedule strength edge to Tulsa by way of having played Oklahoma but outside of that one Game, these two have played a fairly even dance card.
When we look at Temples yards per point numbers we see they have a 24.9 on defense, good for 5th in the country and an 8.7 on offense, which places them #1. Tulsa’s numbers are a horrible 19 on offense and a just as bad 12 on defense. Before we go blaming Oklahoma for those poor Tulsa numbers it’s important to go Game by Game and see how they did against everyone else. They gave up 516 total yards to Tulane, 518 to Florida Atlantic, 409 to Texas State and 532 to Colorado State.
Bottom line is it didn’t matter who they were playing, they couldn’t stop anyone and while their offense managed to move the ball some, they couldn’t convert yards into points. Tulsa is simply a very bad football team and Our Score Prediction model agrees, calling for a 32-12 Temple win and cover.
Also note that Temple is one of the top teams in the nation in turnover margin differential. Now, when you are among the top 5 in the nation in categories such as yards per point on both sides of the ball and turnover margin, odds are, you have a very good football team regardless of who you have played thus far.
This is a Game we would consider as a Key Release if we could get -14 or less. Right now, we’ll have to leave it as an opinion only at the current line of -16.5, but watch the board. Lines flip flop all week long right up until kickoff. Temple should win this Game by 2 TD’s or more. Opinion only Temple -16.5