Utah
vs.
Oregon State
PAC-12
Thursday Night
College Football
Pick – Analysis
1016/14
The Thursday night Pac-12 Game features two teams looking to stay competitive in their respective divisions. While Utah and Oregon State aren’t considered to be on the same level as the top teams in the conference, things are wide open right now. Every team in the Pac-12 already has at least one Conference loss and we’re only six weeks into the season. Oregon State opened as a -1.5 point home favorite at betonline however the early money has been on Utah, moving that number to Utah -1.5 as of Monday morning.
since this is the weekday Game, both teams were off last Saturday so they’ll both be refreshed. Utah is coming off an improbable 30-28 road win at UCLA, while Oregon State also had a 36-31 road win, but against lowly Colorado.
The Utes should be undefeated, but they fell to Washington State after giving up 14 late points that includedan 81-yard touchdown pass. That loss also happened to be their only against the spread loss. In other Games, they handled Fresno State and went to Michigan and won easily as underdogs.
The Beavers are a bit of a different story with a couple of close wins to start out the year against Portland State and Hawaii. They were also never in the Game in the loss at USC. These Games show in their 2-3 ATS record.
When these teams faced off last season, it was a pure shootout in a 51-48 overtime road win for OSU. QB Travis Wilson had one of the best Games of his career for Utah in that Game with five total TDs and 142 yards on the ground, but Sean Mannion and Brandin Cooks were too much. This year should be different as Mannion hasn’t looked as good and Wilson may not even start for the Utes.
Wilson picked up a concussion in the win against UCLA and Kendal Thompson came in to lead the team. Even though Wilson is ready to go, the starting QB still has not been determined by the Utah coaches. No matter who’s under center, running back Devontae Booker (513 yards, 4 TDs) will get a heavy dose against this Oregon State defense.
Teams are usually successful when they try and run on the Beavers and Booker should be able to find plenty of holes. That means Mannion will have to be efficient on the other end, more so than what he’s been.
After 4,662 yards and 37 touchdowns last season, Mannion’s numbers have dipped across the board and he only has five TDs to go with Four interceptions. He doesn’t have the weapons as he’s had in previous years and it’s showing in his play. Victor Bolden and Richard Mullaney are good receivers, but they haven’t been as good as previous WRs for the Beavers. With the less efficient passing Game, Oregon State has taken a bigger use of their ground Game and Terron Ward and Storm Woods continue to get touches. Both have nearly identical numbers, averaging 5.8 yards per carry with nine combined TDs.
It’s likely the Beavers will need more than the 48 rushing yards they had last year to win this Game. On the other side, no matter who’s at QB, they’ll need to continue to take care of the ball.
The Utes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Conference Games and only 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following a straight-up win. The Beavers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home Games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.
The Utes are 1 point from being perfect. They have the better numbers and have played the more difficult Schedule then Oregon State. Hence, logic dictates they have the better team. The double revenge angle doesn’t hurt either and should be enough to overcome having to play this one on the road. With the early line move. Utah -1.5