Capital One
Bowl Pick
Minnesota
vs.
Missouri
1/1/15
Minnesota and Missouri will square off in the 2015 Capital One Bowl. The Missouri Tigers are a -4.5 point favorite in the Game to be played at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando Florida.
Both of these teams continue to surprise and they were both rewarded for it as head coaches Gary Pinkel and Jerry Kill won Coach of the Year awards for their respective conferences.
Missouri won the SEC East for the second straight season, despite losing loads of talent. The Tigers still have one unexplainable loss on their Schedule and it happens to be to Indiana. They lost at home back in September, 31-27, to one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. OUtside of that, they had a big comeback win at South Carolina the weekend after that loss and then were crushed by Georgia at home. The Tigers then closed the season with three straight wins as underdogs (at Texas A&M, at Tennessee, vs. Arkansas).
Minnesota challenged themselves with TCU in non-Conference play and failed in a 30-7 loss. The Golden Gophers lost at Illinois which looked to damper their 6-1 start, but improbably beat Iowa (51-14) and Nebraska (28-24) to close out the year. Those Games were between losses to Ohio State and Wisconsin, both relatively close.
These teams are kind of built in the same mold which is why it should be a good matchup. They both have sketchy quarterback play, but solid running Games and defenses and are led by good coaches. Missouri was undefeated on the road, while Minnesota went 2-3 on the road, so that may come into play on a neutral site.
The Tigers are led by inconsistent Maty Mauk at quarterback, who is awful at times, but often steps up in the Fourth quarter to win ball Games. He’s completing just 52.9% of his passes for 23 TDs and 11 INTs. They stay in Games with a solid rushing attack behind the duo of Russell Hansbrough (970 yards, 9 TDs) and Marcus Murphy (767 yards, 4 TDs). Bud Sasser (935 yards, 10 TDs) and Jimmie Hunt (698 yards, 7 TDs) have been huge in the passing Game for Mauk, as well.
Minnesota has less of a passing Game, but their running Game is better led by David Cobb (1,545 yards, 13 TDs) for the second straight season. Cobb hasn’t really been stopped all year, except the loss at TCU, and should find plenty of room here. Quarterback Mitch Leidner is the main problem for Minnesota. But if he doesn’t turn it over, the Gophers will be in a good spot to cover. Leidner completes just 49% of his passes for 10 TDs and 8 INTs, but is viable on the ground as seen in his 165 yards and Four TDs the past two Games.
Both of these defenses should keep the offenses in check for the most part, much like the Missouri-Arkansas came in late November that went 21-14 for the Tigers. Due to better quarterback play, Missouri has the edge, but the Gophers love forcing turnovers (28 forced) and that could turn the tides.
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Games on grass. The Golden Gophers have covered in five straight vs. a team with a winning record and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-Conference Games. This is Minnesota’s first January bowl in 53 years and they have lost six straight bowls with the last win coming against Alabama in the 2004 Music City Bowl.
Check back on Game day for a pick. If we use the side as a Key Release, we’ll offer an opinion on the total.