Chick-Fil-A
Bowl Pick
Ole Miss
vs.
TCU
12/31/14
What we have in the Peach Bowl is a fun, intriguing battle between two teams that could’ve easily had different late-season fates. Instead, they are playing on New Year’s Eve in a quality matchup. TCU is a -3 point favorite over Ole Miss.
Both of these teams had great seasons, but neither of them landed in the spot they were looking for. TCU finished 11-1 (10-2 ATS) coming off a Four-win season in 2013. That’s an impressive feat, considering they were a meltdown at Baylor away from being undefeated and in the College Football Playoff. They dominated every opponent at home, while West Virginia and surprisingly Kansas gave them some trouble on the road. The Horned Frogs probably want to show the Committee that they chose the wrong Four teams.
Ole Miss finished with three losses, but still are the No. 9 team in the CFP rankings. After starting 7-0 with wins over Alabama and Texas A&M, the Rebels were looking destined for the playoff. Instead, they fell at LSU and then to Auburn the next week. After a blowout loss at Arkansas, it looked like they were done for, but surprised many by taking out rival Miss. State in the Egg Bowl 31-17.
This Game pits two different kinds of beasts against each other. Ole Miss has the best defense in the country, according to points allowed at 13.8 per Game. Their offense has struggled at times, especially in some of their losses. Meanwhile TCU has one of the highest-scoring offenses at 46.8 points per Game, but also a viable defense allowing 20.3 points per Game.
If the Rebels revert back to their early-season form, or even how they played in the Egg Bowl, this will be a fun Game.
TCU’s spread offense has been a revelation for the team this season. Trevone Boykin has been great at quarterback tossing for 30 TDs and only seven picks. Throw in 642 rushing yards and eight more touchdowns on the ground. Josh Doctson (959 yards, 9 TDs) is his favorite target, but he does spread it plenty. In addition to the passing Game, the Frogs average 5.4 yards per carry, led by Aaron Green (854 yards, 8 TDs) as of late, although B.J. Catalon (10 TDs) could make his return from injury in the bowl (missed final Four Games).
Ole Miss has a fast defense and has the ability to slow down this TCU group. On the other end, while the Rebels have trouble once in a while, TCU has allowed a decent amount of points to better teams like Oklahoma, Baylor and even West Virginia.
The loss of LAquon Treadwell was brutal for the team, but Evan Engram has turned into Bo Wallace’s favorite target in the last couple Games. Wallace hasn’t improved too much as a senior and has a problem with bad interceptions (22 TDs, 11 INTs), but you still can’t take him lightly. If TCU does Scoreearly and opens the Game up, that will be trouble for this offense. Their running Game isn’t great led by Jaylen Walton (583 yards, 5 TDs), but they do average 4.6 YPC as a team.
If TCU comes out of the gates gunning, it’ll be hard for Ole Miss to keep up and that’s the main reason most of the early money is on the Frogs.
The Rebels have won seven straight bowl Games and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl appearances. They are also 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 non-Conference Games, but 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but have not covered in five straight bowls.
Opinion only – Under 56