Florida
vs.
Florida State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/29/14
Florida State is still undefeated at 11-0 and that’s all that matters at this point. However, their season is far from over and Florida would like more than anything to upset them in this one. The Seminoles are a -7.5 favorite at home against the Gators.
A lot of the early money is on Florida and that’s partly because most of the public has zero faith in FSU and thinks they have to lose at some point. Let’s take a look at the numbers to see if the Gator-backing is warranted.
The season hasn’t been great for Florida, but at least it’s better than last year’s debacle. The Gators sit at 6-4 with some decent wins to their name, winning at Tennessee 10-9 and against Georgia 38-20. Sure, they have some mishaps, losing by 29 to Missouri, but they’ve been close in most of their Games.
While it hasn’t been pretty, Florida State keeps winning. Maybe they were looking ahead last week against Boston College, but needing a last-second field goal to beat the Eagles at home isn’t ideal. The Seminoles have had a number of close calls like that one, but remain undefeated. While they don’t look all that great in the process, they know how to win and that’s all that’s needed.
FSU has won three of the last Four meetings between these schools and dominated last year 37-7 on the road, but these teams look a bit different now. The ‘Noles aren’t blowing everyone out and Skyler Mornhinweg is not the Gators starting quarterback.
Freshman Treon Harris will get the start at QB for Florida and he’ll get a chance to show if he’s the future or not for this team. So far, that hasn’t exactly been the case. Although in limited time, his numbers are better than what Jeff Driskel has done. While he’s not a great passer, Harris does add some mobility which should help in this Game. Running backs Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor will be the keys for the Gators, much like they were against Georgia. If they can run the ball, there’s no reason why this team can’t cover.
And when Florida plays to their ability, they have a solid defense. But getting turnovers against Jameis Winston is how teams are staying competitive against FSU this season.
Winston has tossed 13 interceptions this year along with 19 touchdowns. Keep in mind, he had 40 TDs and 10 INTs last year. Most of the passing Game runs through Rashad Greene (1,148 yards, 5 TDs) and that’s exactly what Winston will try and do. If he can get the ball to Greene, good things will happen. Dalvin Cook and Karlos Williams (1,155 yards, 17 TDs) have formed a nice duo out of the backfield and both can break a big run at any time.
It seems like Florida State has trouble out of the gate in almost every Game and Florida will have to capitalize if that’s the case. The Gators offense may not be good enough to win this Game, but they should keep things close, as long as the defense stays tough.
The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games, but only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-Conference Games and 1-6 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. The Seminoles aren’t much better going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last six home Games. The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these schools.
This Game opened at FSU -10.5 and has dropped to -7.5. We’d agree with the move. Close Games have been the norm for the Noles, particularly when they step up in class. No reason the Gators can’t follow suit here. They’re looking to better their Bowl position, looking for revenge and also looking to send their well liked coach out a winner. Florida has nothing to lose here, while all the pressure his squarely on Florida State to continue to win. We’ll take the TD with Florida here. Florida +7.5