Military Bowl Pick
Virginia Tech
vs.
Cincinnati
12/27/14
Even for a Game that’s played outside in December, the Military Bowl usually has plenty of excitement as the over has hit in five of the six Games since its inception. Despite that, the more defensive team, Virginia Tech, is a -3 point favorite over Cincinnati.
The Hokies are just 6-6 and have not won three straight Games all season. Their win over Ohio State automatically put them in a bowl Game, no matter who their other wins were against. While VT still has solid wins over UNC and Duke, they also have a 6-3 double overtime loss to Wake Forest. The Hokies were actually better on the road, going 3-2 with the three wins mentioned above all being away from home.
Cincinnati has taken a different route, mostly with the help of the American conference. The Bearcats lost three straight Games early in the year allowing more than 40 points in all of them, and then finished the season with seven straight wins. Most of that is due to an easy Schedule. against the tougher teams in the conference, they lost to Memphis 41-14, and beat East Carolina 54-46 and Houston 38-31, with all three of those Games at home.
These teams are kind of the opposite in the way they play. Cincinnati is a high-scoring team that struggles on defense against any decent opponent. Sure, the Bearcats allowed 17 points or less in five Games, but those five opponents have a combined 16 wins.
Virginia Tech is all defense and only allow 20 points per Game. If their offense was any better, who knows how the season could have gone. With a group that scored 23.3 points per Game, five of the Hokies six losses were by a touchdown or less.
It’s going to fall on the VT offense to win this Game. Michael Brewer, former Texas Tech QB, has been inconsistent all year long with 17 TDs and 14 INTs. He has good Games here and there, but then at times makes a lot of questionable decisions and lacks the talent needed. He had just 80 yards in the loss to Miami (FL) and 126 yards against Wake Forest, and while he threw for 297 against Georgia Tech, he had a costly three interceptions. The Hokies will lean on the running Game as much as possible and Cincy can be beat. J.C. Coleman has 56 carries over the last three Games and should hit about 20 carries in this one.
The Bearcats have won with offense this year and will face a tough task against the VT defense here. In just his second season, Gunner Kiel has looked great for Cincy tossing for 3,010 yards, 30 TDs and 11 INTs. He has taken a backseat to the rushing attack in the past few Games, but he will likely be needed against Virginia Tech. Kiel has plenty of big targets to look to like the 6-6 Mekale McKay (8 TDs), but also the speedy Shaq Washington.
If the Bearcats can continue their scoring rate against this defense, it will be tough for the VT offense to keep up, much like what happened to East Carolina and Houston against Cincy.
The Bearcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Games overall, but 1-5 ATS in their last six non-Conference Games. The Hokies are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and only 3-13 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS win.
When using the entire sesons worth of stats, Our model has Tech on top. However, when using the last 7 Games only, it has Cinci on top by 4 which shows the momentum swing in favor of the Bearcats. We’ll offer up two plays here. Cincinnati -2.5 and UNDER 51.