Duke
vs.
Wisconsin
Final Four
Championship Game
Prediction – Analysis
4/6/15
The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship is here and it doesn’t include the team everyone expected to be here. Wisconsin took down the mighty Kentucky in the Final 4 and the better team won. In the other semifinal, Duke had no problems against Michigan State en route to a 20-point win. At least we know this Game is going to be a battle, opening as a pick ‘em at almost every book including 5Dimes.
The Blue Devils have covered in every Game so far in the Tournament, while the Badgers have covered three straight. It can be argued that Wisconsin’s run to the final has been much harder than Duke’s. The Badgers not only had to beat the undefeated Wildcats, but also Arizona, UNC and Oregon, none being easy tasks. It’s not like Duke’s Schedule was easy, but they got a 7-seed in the Final 4 and beat up on west coast teams in their other three Games against Gonzaga, Utah and San Diego State.
These teams met earlier in the season with the Blue Devils coming away with an 80-70 win in Madison. Much like any of these rematches, it’s hard to put too much into those early-season Games. For starters, Rasheed Sulaimon is no longer on Duke and he had 14 points in that Game, while Traevon Jackson dropped 25 for the Badgers. Jackson is averaging about 10 minutes per Game for 10 total points in his three Tournament appearances since a return from injury.
This Game is going to be fun, to say the least. Maybe less people will pay attention to it because Kentucky isn’t going for an undefeated season, but that’s a poor reason not to tune in. Two of the best players in the college Game are set to go head-to-head in Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor. Okafor got into a bit of foul trouble last meeting and only played 27 minutes. But again, let’s ignore that Game. Both players are going to have problems defending each other as neither are that overwhelming on the defensive end. Kaminsky’s ability to stretch the floor will be his main advantage over Okafor and he has a tad more athleticism, but not by a lot.
The interesting factor is how Duke is going to play defense on Wisconsin. How much will they go to their zone? Because with the starting lineup that the Blue Devils have been using, they’ll have to put Justise Winslow on Nigel Hayes and Matt Jones on Sam Dekker. Winslow and Hayes will be a fun matchup to watch with both guys having advantages on each other, Hayes with his size and Winslow with his athleticism. But if Matt Jones has to guard Sam Dekker, that could be an issue. Dekker has been an absolute monster for the Badgers in the Tournament, disposing of anyone that has had to guard him from Trey Lyles to Stanley Johnson and JP Tokoto. Dekker is doing everything on offense from shooting off the dribble to driving to the hoop, even at 6-foot-9. Matt Jones is listed at 6’5”. Winslow could see a lot of time on him, with Amile Jefferson becoming a factor off the bench to defend Hayes.
Duke gets the edge in the backcOurt with Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook. Those two have been as big of reason as anyone on this team for their success. Jones and Cook have turned it over only one combined time in the last two Games, that’s huge. Bronson Koenig is going to have trouble against whomever he guards, while Josh Gasser is a pure glue-guy known for his defense. Because of Koenig’s weaker defense, we could see more Traevon Jackson in this Game to deal with the quick, smart and dangerous guards of Duke.
There isn’t a huge advantage anywhere on the cOurt for either of these teams, though, which is why this is a pick ‘em. Duke’s defense has been incredible all Tournament long, but they haven’t faced a team like Wisconsin yet. The Badgers often have five guys on the cOurt that can shoot with range and they just got done playing two of the best defenses in the country in Kentucky and Arizona. They won’t be fazed. On the other end of that, Duke is cruising right now. If Tyus Jones and Cook have success, that still doesn’t include what Okafor and Winslow can do.
This is a true pick ‘em, but as long as Wisconsin doesn’t have a Kentucky hangover, the more battle-tested team is the one to take if this Game comes down to the final minutes. Sam Dekker, as he’s been all Tournament, could end up being the difference.
Sure enough, when we run Our model for this Game, we come up with dfferent results depending on the parameters used. When using full season data, the model has Wisconsin on top by 2 by a score of 68-66. When using only the last 7 Games, the predicted score is Duke 70-67. Finally, when using just the last 4 Games, Our model predicts a final of Duke 69-64.