Wisconsin
vs.
Kentucky
Final 4
Pick – Analysis
Score Prediction
4/4/15
Well, this is what we’ve been waiting for. since even before the Tournament began, Wisconsin has been the popular team among experts and media members with the likeliest chance to knock off Kentucky. The Wildcats opened as -5.5 point favorites at 5Dimes sportsbook, then went to -6 and then dropped to -5 where it sat on Monday.
Kentucky looked vulnerable in its last win against Notre Dame, but plenty of people (UK backers) are assuming that it was just a little scare and they’ll be ready in the Final 4. The Irish could’ve easily walked away with the win, but Kentucky won in the end 68-66. Wisconsin’s win over Arizona wasn’t as close, thanks in large part to a ridiculous shooting rate in the second half that includedgoing 10-of-12 from deep. It was a half that will likely never be repeated again in the Elite 8 or even in March Madness.
There are plenty of cases for both sides to win, so let’s look at the main matchup that everyone is talking about. Frank Kaminsky and Karl-Anthony Towns are both great talents and present different kinds of problems for opposing defenses. Kaminsky’s post-defense is lacking and that was on display against Arizona allowing Brandon Ashley to work him multiple times. Towns is a complete beast and dropped 25 points against a Notre Dame team that didn’t double team him.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of defense both teams play, if Wisconsin chooses to double team on Towns or not. And on the other side, Towns might not even guard Kaminsky. For that task, Willie Cauley-Stein could be called upon. Kaminsky’s ability to shoot with range, but also take bigger guys off the dribble is a reason why Towns couldn’t guard him. Then again, if he doesn’t get Kaminsky, he’ll be on Nigel Hayes, who can also shoot and drive on slower guys.
And then there’s the matchup of Sam Dekker and Trey Lyles. Dekker’s NBA stock has shot through the roof in the last two Games, totaling 50 points against UNC and ‘Zona. He presents the ability to shoot, but also take bigger guys off the dribble due to his incredible athleticism and his 6-9 height. Lyles is similar in stature, but with the way that Dekker has been playing (draining 3s off the dribble), not many in the college Game can stop him.
The battle of the backcOurts will be interesting as well, whether it’s one of the Harrison twins, or Devin Booker or Tyler Ulis off the bench, Wisconsin has guys that can match up. There doesn’t seem to be a matchup that Josh Gasser can’t handle, the Badgers’ senior defensive specialist, glue guy and occasional three-point gunner. However, Bronson Koenig and Traevon Jackson may be the biggest part for Wisconsin if they want to win this Game.
Koenig exploded in the Big Ten Tournament, but hasn’t really had an over-the-top great Game yet in the Tournament. Whether that’s because he wasn’t needed, it doesn’t matter, but Koenig will be needed against Kentucky. The same goes for Jackson, who is still a little rusty and hasn’t done much for Wisconsin in his two Games since returning from injury. Koenig has been in foul trouble the last two Games, and going against the Kentucky guards, that could be a problem again.
For the Wildcats to win (and cover), they’ll need to play better than last Game. They’ll have to attack on the offensive end and while Wisconsin is the least-fouling team in the nation, Arizona shot 30 free throws against them last Game. UK’s guards will definitely have to step up more in this Game and not settle for contested jump shots. That means going to the basket and either dishing it back out or going up with it. They didn’t really do much of that against Notre Dame and it showed. That tentative play can’t happen in this one.
We don’t know how each team will defend one another, but we know Wisconsin probably won’t be able to stop Towns. The Badgers are a great defensive rebounding team though and that could come into play if Kentucky settles for too many poor percentage jumpers.
A lot of people are still assuming that the Wildcats will win because they’re undefeated, but if Dekker can continue his dominant play, this Game will come down to the wire, much like Kentucky’s last Game.
When using full season data, Our model predicts a 61-58 Kentucky win however when using only data from the last 7 Games, Our model predicts the upset with Wisconsin winning by a score of 69-68.