Kentucky vs. Alabama Free College Basketball Pick ATS – 2/5/22

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kentucky at alabama college hoops pick ats
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Alabama hosts Kentucky tonight in college hoops. The Wildcats opened as -2 point road favorites however Alabama money has flowed in making the Tide a -1.5 point favorite currently. The total is 157.

Below we’ll last some head to head stats as well as a prediction from our model.

HEAD TO HEAD

1/26/2021  Kentucky                 59  + 7.0  at Alabama                  70
 1/12/2021  Alabama                  85  + 3.0  at Kentucky                 65
 1/11/2020  Alabama                  67  +10.0  at Kentucky                 76
 3/15/2019  Kentucky                 73  -12.5  vs Alabama                  55
 1/ 5/2019  Kentucky                 75  - 5.0  at Alabama                  77
 3/10/2018  Kentucky                 86  - 4.5  vs Alabama                  63
 2/17/2018  Alabama                  71  + 4.0  at Kentucky                 81
 3/11/2017  Kentucky                 79  -10.5  vs Alabama                  74
 2/11/2017  Kentucky                 67  - 7.5  at Alabama                  58
 3/11/2016  Kentucky                 85  -12.0  vs Alabama                  59
 2/23/2016  Alabama                  53  +13.5  at Kentucky                 78
 1/ 9/2016  Kentucky                 77  - 6.5  at Alabama                  61
 1/31/2015  Alabama                  55  +19.0  at Kentucky                 70
 1/17/2015  Kentucky                 70  - 9.5  at Alabama                  48
 3/ 4/2014  Alabama                  48  +13.0  at Kentucky                 55
 1/22/2013  Kentucky                 55  - 4.5  at Alabama                  59
 1/21/2012  Alabama                  71  +10.5  at Kentucky                 77
 3/12/2011  Kentucky                 72  - 6.5  vs Alabama                  58
 1/18/2011  Kentucky                 66  - 4.0  at Alabama                  68
 3/12/2010  Kentucky                 73  -10.0  vs Alabama                  67
 2/ 9/2010  Alabama                  55  +15.0  at Kentucky                 66
 1/24/2009  Kentucky                 61  - 6.5  at Alabama                  51
 2/ 9/2008  Alabama                  52  + 6.5  at Kentucky                 62
 3/ 8/2007  Kentucky                 79  - 3.0  vs Alabama                  67
 2/17/2007  Kentucky                 61  + 0.0  at Alabama                  72
 3/10/2006  Kentucky                 68  - 2.5  vs Alabama                  61
 1/14/2006  Alabama                  68  + 7.0  at Kentucky                 64
 2/26/2005  Kentucky                 78  + 3.0  at Alabama                  71
 2/10/2004  Alabama                  55  +10.0  at Kentucky                 66
 1/25/2003  Kentucky                 63  + 1.5  at Alabama                  46
 1/26/2002  Alabama                  64  +10.0  at Kentucky                 61
 1/23/2001  Kentucky                 60  + 3.5  at Alabama                  70
  
   average outcome:
     Kentucky                69.6  Alabama                 62.5
     margin =  -7.16
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Kentucky                72.6  Alabama                 65.9
     margin =  -6.74
  
   average result when the home team is Alabama                
     Kentucky                66.0  Alabama                 62.6
     margin =  -3.42
  
   average result when the home team is Kentucky               
     Alabama                 62.0  Kentucky                68.4
     margin =   6.42
  
    48.28 % of games went Over
    40.00 % went Over at Alabama                
    (since        2002 )
  
   average total points per game = 132.09
   time-weighted average total   = 138.53
  
   the home team covered  41.67 % of the time
   the road team covered  58.33 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -4.44
  
   the favorite  covered  51.61 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  48.39 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.11
  
   the favorite won SU    74.19 % of the time
  
   Kentucky                covered  50.00 % of the time
   Alabama                 covered  50.00 % of the time
  
   Alabama                 covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Alabama                 covered  50.00 % of the time as home favorites

LAST 8 FOR EACH TEAM

last 8 results: 
  
    2/ 1  Alabama                  81  at  Auburn                  100    OV 156.5
    1/29  Baylor                   78  at  Alabama                  87    OV 150.5
    1/25  Alabama                  76  at  Georgia                  82    XX 158.0
    1/22  Missouri                 76  at  Alabama                  86    OV 149.0
    1/19  L.S.U.                   67  at  Alabama                  70    UN 148.5
    1/15  Alabama                  76  at  Mississippi State        78    OV 151.5
    1/11  Auburn                   81  at  Alabama                  77    OV 156.5
    1/ 8  Alabama                  86  at  Missouri                 92    OV 149.5
  
   ***
  
    2/ 2  Vanderbilt               70  at  Kentucky                 77    OV 142.0
    1/29  Kentucky                 80  at  Kansas                   62    UN 152.0
    1/25  Mississippi State        74  at  Kentucky                 82    OV 142.0
    1/22  Kentucky                 71  at  Auburn                   80    OV 149.5
    1/19  Kentucky                 64  at  Texas A&M                58    UN 143.0
    1/15  Tennessee                79  at  Kentucky                107    OV 141.5
    1/11  Kentucky                 78  at  Vanderbilt               66    UN 145.0
    1/ 8  Georgia                  77  at  Kentucky                 92    OV 147.0

 

THE MODEL SAYS…

Kentucky                 157.5          76           
Alabama                   -1.0          83 using full season data
  
Kentucky                 157.5          94           
Alabama                   -1.0          80 data from last 4 games
  
Kentucky                 157.5          88           
Alabama                   -1.0          78 data from last 7 games

 

Current form is very important when handicapping college hoops. As you can see from the model’s predictions above, when taking into the account the entire season, Alabama is the play. However, when only looking at the last 7 and or the last 4 games, the model likes Kentucky by 10+ points.

The Wildcats are playing slightly above their season ratings while the Tide have been playing well below theirs. We’ll take Kentucky here for the upset.

Kentucky +1.5