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Alabama hosts Kentucky tonight in college hoops. The Wildcats opened as -2 point road favorites however Alabama money has flowed in making the Tide a -1.5 point favorite currently. The total is 157.
Below we’ll last some head to head stats as well as a prediction from our model.
HEAD TO HEAD
1/26/2021 Kentucky 59 + 7.0 at Alabama 70
1/12/2021 Alabama 85 + 3.0 at Kentucky 65
1/11/2020 Alabama 67 +10.0 at Kentucky 76
3/15/2019 Kentucky 73 -12.5 vs Alabama 55
1/ 5/2019 Kentucky 75 - 5.0 at Alabama 77
3/10/2018 Kentucky 86 - 4.5 vs Alabama 63
2/17/2018 Alabama 71 + 4.0 at Kentucky 81
3/11/2017 Kentucky 79 -10.5 vs Alabama 74
2/11/2017 Kentucky 67 - 7.5 at Alabama 58
3/11/2016 Kentucky 85 -12.0 vs Alabama 59
2/23/2016 Alabama 53 +13.5 at Kentucky 78
1/ 9/2016 Kentucky 77 - 6.5 at Alabama 61
1/31/2015 Alabama 55 +19.0 at Kentucky 70
1/17/2015 Kentucky 70 - 9.5 at Alabama 48
3/ 4/2014 Alabama 48 +13.0 at Kentucky 55
1/22/2013 Kentucky 55 - 4.5 at Alabama 59
1/21/2012 Alabama 71 +10.5 at Kentucky 77
3/12/2011 Kentucky 72 - 6.5 vs Alabama 58
1/18/2011 Kentucky 66 - 4.0 at Alabama 68
3/12/2010 Kentucky 73 -10.0 vs Alabama 67
2/ 9/2010 Alabama 55 +15.0 at Kentucky 66
1/24/2009 Kentucky 61 - 6.5 at Alabama 51
2/ 9/2008 Alabama 52 + 6.5 at Kentucky 62
3/ 8/2007 Kentucky 79 - 3.0 vs Alabama 67
2/17/2007 Kentucky 61 + 0.0 at Alabama 72
3/10/2006 Kentucky 68 - 2.5 vs Alabama 61
1/14/2006 Alabama 68 + 7.0 at Kentucky 64
2/26/2005 Kentucky 78 + 3.0 at Alabama 71
2/10/2004 Alabama 55 +10.0 at Kentucky 66
1/25/2003 Kentucky 63 + 1.5 at Alabama 46
1/26/2002 Alabama 64 +10.0 at Kentucky 61
1/23/2001 Kentucky 60 + 3.5 at Alabama 70
average outcome:
Kentucky 69.6 Alabama 62.5
margin = -7.16
time-weighted average outcome:
Kentucky 72.6 Alabama 65.9
margin = -6.74
average result when the home team is Alabama
Kentucky 66.0 Alabama 62.6
margin = -3.42
average result when the home team is Kentucky
Alabama 62.0 Kentucky 68.4
margin = 6.42
48.28 % of games went Over
40.00 % went Over at Alabama
(since 2002 )
average total points per game = 132.09
time-weighted average total = 138.53
the home team covered 41.67 % of the time
the road team covered 58.33 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -4.44
the favorite covered 51.61 % of the time
the underdog covered 48.39 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.11
the favorite won SU 74.19 % of the time
Kentucky covered 50.00 % of the time
Alabama covered 50.00 % of the time
Alabama covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Alabama covered 50.00 % of the time as home favorites
LAST 8 FOR EACH TEAM
last 8 results:
2/ 1 Alabama 81 at Auburn 100 OV 156.5
1/29 Baylor 78 at Alabama 87 OV 150.5
1/25 Alabama 76 at Georgia 82 XX 158.0
1/22 Missouri 76 at Alabama 86 OV 149.0
1/19 L.S.U. 67 at Alabama 70 UN 148.5
1/15 Alabama 76 at Mississippi State 78 OV 151.5
1/11 Auburn 81 at Alabama 77 OV 156.5
1/ 8 Alabama 86 at Missouri 92 OV 149.5
***
2/ 2 Vanderbilt 70 at Kentucky 77 OV 142.0
1/29 Kentucky 80 at Kansas 62 UN 152.0
1/25 Mississippi State 74 at Kentucky 82 OV 142.0
1/22 Kentucky 71 at Auburn 80 OV 149.5
1/19 Kentucky 64 at Texas A&M 58 UN 143.0
1/15 Tennessee 79 at Kentucky 107 OV 141.5
1/11 Kentucky 78 at Vanderbilt 66 UN 145.0
1/ 8 Georgia 77 at Kentucky 92 OV 147.0
THE MODEL SAYS…
Kentucky 157.5 76 Alabama -1.0 83 using full season data Kentucky 157.5 94 Alabama -1.0 80 data from last 4 games Kentucky 157.5 88 Alabama -1.0 78 data from last 7 games
Current form is very important when handicapping college hoops. As you can see from the model’s predictions above, when taking into the account the entire season, Alabama is the play. However, when only looking at the last 7 and or the last 4 games, the model likes Kentucky by 10+ points.
The Wildcats are playing slightly above their season ratings while the Tide have been playing well below theirs. We’ll take Kentucky here for the upset.
Kentucky +1.5
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