Michigan State at Ohio State Big 10 CBB Pick ATS – 3/3/22

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mich state vs. ohio state cbb pick ats
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Ohio State will host Michigan State in Big 10 college hoops action tonight. The Buckeyes are favored by 6 with a total of 139 at betonline.

Below we’ll list the head to head history between these two teams as well as a set of predictions from our model using different time frame parameters.

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
 2/25/2021  Ohio State               67  - 4.0  at Michigan State           71
 1/31/2021  Michigan State           62  + 6.0  at Ohio State               79
 3/ 8/2020  Ohio State               69  + 7.0  at Michigan State           80
 3/15/2019  Ohio State               70  +10.5  vs Michigan State           77
 2/17/2019  Ohio State               44  +12.0  at Michigan State           62
 1/ 5/2019  Michigan State           86  - 2.0  at Ohio State               77
 1/ 7/2018  Michigan State           64  - 6.5  at Ohio State               80
 2/14/2017  Ohio State               66  + 7.0  at Michigan State           74
 1/15/2017  Michigan State           67  + 2.5  at Ohio State               72
 3/11/2016  Ohio State               54  +13.0  vs Michigan State           81
 3/ 5/2016  Ohio State               76  +14.5  at Michigan State           91
 2/23/2016  Michigan State           81  - 6.0  at Ohio State               62
 3/13/2015  Ohio State               67  + 1.5  vs Michigan State           76
 2/14/2015  Ohio State               56  + 2.5  at Michigan State           59
 3/ 9/2014  Michigan State           67  + 3.5  at Ohio State               69
 1/ 7/2014  Ohio State               68  + 5.5  at Michigan State           72
 3/16/2013  Ohio State               61  - 1.5  vs Michigan State           58
 2/24/2013  Michigan State           60  + 3.0  at Ohio State               68
 1/19/2013  Ohio State               56  + 2.0  at Michigan State           59
 3/11/2012  Ohio State               64  - 2.0  vs Michigan State           68
 3/ 4/2012  Ohio State               72  + 2.5  at Michigan State           70
 2/11/2012  Michigan State           58  + 9.0  at Ohio State               48
 2/15/2011  Michigan State           61  +12.5  at Ohio State               71
 2/21/2010  Ohio State               74  + 3.0  at Michigan State           67
 3/14/2009  Ohio State               82  + 8.0  vs Michigan State           70
 1/25/2009  Michigan State           78  - 2.5  at Ohio State               67
 1/ 6/2009  Ohio State               58  +10.0  at Michigan State           67
 3/14/2008  Ohio State               60  + 4.5  vs Michigan State           67
 3/ 9/2008  Michigan State           54  + 1.0  at Ohio State               63
 1/15/2008  Ohio State               60  + 7.5  at Michigan State           66
 2/ 3/2007  Ohio State               63  - 2.0  at Michigan State           54
 1/27/2007  Michigan State           64  + 8.5  at Ohio State               66
 2/22/2006  Ohio State               79  + 5.0  at Michigan State           68
 1/15/2006  Michigan State           62  + 4.5  at Ohio State               59
 2/ 9/2005  Ohio State               69  +11.0  at Michigan State           83
 2/ 7/2004  Michigan State           84  - 5.0  at Ohio State               70
 3/15/2003  Ohio State               55  + 5.5  vs Michigan State           54
 3/ 8/2003  Michigan State           72  - 1.0  at Ohio State               58
 1/ 9/2003  Ohio State               55  +10.5  at Michigan State           66
 2/26/2002  Michigan State           81  + 6.0  at Ohio State               76
 2/10/2002  Ohio State               64  + 3.0  at Michigan State           67
 1/27/2001  Michigan State           55  - 6.5  at Ohio State               64
 1/21/2001  Ohio State               56  +14.0  at Michigan State           71
  
   average outcome:
     Michigan State          68.7  Ohio State              65.4
     margin =  -3.26
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Michigan State          72.3  Ohio State              67.7
     margin =  -4.53
  
   average result when the home team is Ohio State             
     Michigan State          68.0  Ohio State              67.6
     margin =  -0.41
  
   average result when the home team is Michigan State         
     Ohio State              64.0  Michigan State          69.3
     margin =   5.28
  
    50.00 % of games went Over
    57.14 % went Over at Ohio State             
    (since        2002 )
  
   average total points per game = 134.14
   time-weighted average total   = 140.02
  
   the home team covered  47.06 % of the time
   the road team covered  52.94 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.51
  
   the favorite  covered  54.76 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  45.24 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.89
  
   the favorite won SU    72.09 % of the time
  
   Michigan State          covered  59.52 % of the time
   Ohio State              covered  40.48 % of the time
  
   Ohio State              covered  35.29 % of the time at home
   Ohio State              covered  40.00 % of the time as home favorites
last 8 results: 
  
    3/ 1  Nebraska                 78  at  Ohio State               70    UN 150.0
    2/27  Ohio State               60  at  Maryland                 75    UN 141.5
    2/24  Ohio State               86  at  Illinois                 83    OV 140.5
    2/21  Indiana                  69  at  Ohio State               80    OV 135.5
    2/19  Iowa                     75  at  Ohio State               62    UN 153.5
    2/15  Minnesota                45  at  Ohio State               70    UN 138.5
    2/12  Ohio State               68  at  Michigan                 57    UN 140.0
    2/ 9  Ohio State               64  at  Rutgers                  66    UN 135.0
  
   ***
  
    3/ 1  Michigan State           70  at  Michigan                 87    OV 144.5
    2/26  Purdue                   65  at  Michigan State           68    UN 146.5
    2/22  Michigan State           60  at  Iowa                     86    UN 153.5
    2/19  Illinois                 79  at  Michigan State           74    OV 140.5
    2/15  Michigan State           58  at  Penn State               62    UN 129.5
    2/12  Indiana                  61  at  Michigan State           76    OV 134.5
    2/ 8  Wisconsin                70  at  Michigan State           62    UN 139.0
    2/ 5  Michigan State           63  at  Rutgers                  84    OV 134.0

 

Our Model 

Michigan State             0.0          67           
Ohio State                -6.0          70 full season data
  
Michigan State             0.0          80           
Ohio State                -6.0          72 last 4 games data
  
Michigan State             0.0          66           
Ohio State                -6.           69 last 7 games data