North Carolina vs. Alabama Sweet 16 Prediction – 3-28

North Carolina vs Alabama Pick Sweet 16
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Sweet 16 Showdown: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Get ready for an explosive Sweet 16 matchup as the North Carolina Tar Heels square off against the Alabama Crimson Tide on Thursday, March 28th, 2024, at 9:39 PM ET. Brace yourself for a high-scoring thriller at the Arena in Los Angeles, California, broadcasted live on CBS.

Statistical Showdown

Alabama boasts a high-octane offense, ranking 1st nationally in scoring. They excel in field goal percentage (32nd), three-point shooting (31st), and free throws (11th). North Carolina’s edge lies in their defensive prowess, forcing significantly more turnovers than their opponents.

Common Opponent Analysis

The tale of the tape against common opponents tells a compelling story. Alabama holds a dismal 1-7 record, suffering an average loss margin of 11 points. Conversely, North Carolina flaunts a 5-3 record, winning by an average of nearly 5 points per game.

Recent Form

Our predictive model, analyzing data from the last seven games, projects a North Carolina win (and cover) by a score of 97-90.

Paths to the Sweet 16

The Tar Heels reached this stage by vanquishing Wagner and Michigan State. The Crimson Tide had to overcome Charleston and Grand Canyon to get here.

Historic Rematch

These two powerhouses have a recent thrilling history. Their last clash in November 2022 went to four overtimes, with Alabama ultimately emerging victorious by a razor-thin margin of 103-101.

Betting Insights

The Tar Heels are 4 point favorites with a total of 173.5 at Betonline Sportsbook.

Our Pick

Prior to the NCAA tournament Alabama had dropped 4 of their last 6 games and their two tournament wins weren’t exactly against powerhouses. North Carolina on the other hand has won 10 of 11 games with their only loss coming in the ACC tournament to a red hot NC State team.

The Tar Heels have looked like the better team not only down the stretch but all season long. We think our model has this one pegged right.  North Carolina advances here and covers the small spot as well.

North Carolina -4

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