Revenge or Repeat? CBB Pick 2/26: #11 Baylor and TCU Square Off in Pivotal Rematch

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baylor at tcu cbb pick ats with trends and model prediction
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The Big 12 conference stage is set for a high-stakes rematch when #11 Baylor Bears (19-8, 8-6 Big 12) travel to Fort Worth to battle the TCU Horned Frogs (19-8, 8-6 Big 12). Baylor arrives wounded after two straight losses, including a heartbreaking overtime defeat to #2 Houston, while TCU seeks to repeat their epic triple-overtime upset from last month.

Road Woes vs. Home-Court Tenacity

Baylor’s 3-4 road record offers no guarantee of victory, especially against a TCU team boasting a dominant 12-2 record on their home court. The Bears must rediscover their winning formula away from Waco if they want to avenge their previous loss – and defy the oddsmakers who have TCU favored by 3 with a total of 150 (BetOnline Sportsbook).

Clash of Statistical Equals

Both Baylor and TCU are evenly matched in many key statistical categories. However, Baylor holds a distinct advantage in three-point shooting. Their 39.6% accuracy from beyond the arc (4th in the nation) could be the difference-maker against TCU’s less potent long-range attack (92nd in the nation).

Tale of the Tape: Common Opponents

Against common opponents, Baylor holds a decisive edge, winning by nearly 10 points per game compared to TCU’s narrow 2.2-point margin. This trend, combined with TCU’s strong 17-10 ATS record, suggests a potentially close and unpredictable contest.

The Ghost of Triple Overtime

The memory of their triple-overtime thriller in January looms large. Can TCU replicate their magic, or will Baylor exact revenge and silence the Fort Worth crowd?

Prediction

Our data-driven model anticipates a Baylor victory with a score of 77-74. However, with the stakes high, TCU’s home-court advantage, and the bookies favoring the Horned Frogs, don’t be surprised if this rematch goes down to the wire once again.

Our Pick – Baylor +3

 

Game Info

  • Date: Monday, February 26, 2024
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Where: Fort Worth, Texas
  • Venue: Schollmaier Arena
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