SMU at South Florida CBB Pick 2/25/25

SMU at South Florida Bulls CBB ATS Pick
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Clash of AAC Contenders: SMU Mustangs Seek Upset Against Surging South Florida Bulls

The SMU Mustangs (19-8, 10-4 AAC) journey to Tampa for a critical showdown with the red-hot South Florida Bulls (20-5, 13-1 AAC), the conference’s current leaders. SMU aims to halt USF’s 12-game winning streak while bolstering their own strong road record (7-3 ATS).

Key Stats and Trends

  • SMU’s Playmaking Edge: The Mustangs excel in distributing the ball, leading the AAC with 16.2 assists per game. Chuck Harris fuels this with his 3.6 assists average. They also hold a field goal percentage advantage (46.2%).
  • Bulls on a Roll: USF boasts a dominant home record (13-2) and impressive conference mark (13-1 ATS). Kasean Pryor (11.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG) leads the way, while Chris Youngblood (15.4 PPG in the last 10 games) has been a scoring spark.
  • Only Meeting : This is the first and only AAC meeting between the two teams this season.
  • SMU’s Stellar ATS Road Form: The Mustangs have defied expectations with a 7-3 ATS record away from home, making them a dangerous opponent despite USF’s home-court advantage.
  • Close Contest: Against common opponents, SMU is (13-6) with a higher average winning margin (9.6 PPG) compared to USF (18-1, 6.2 PPG).

Statistical Edge for SMU

The Mustangs surprisingly hold advantages in several key statistical categories:

  • Points Per Game: SMU’s offense generates more points.
  • Field Goal Percentage: SMU boasts greater shooting accuracy.
  • Total Rebounds: SMU outmuscles USF on the boards.
  • Assists: SMU’s ball distribution is superior.
  • Blocked Shots: SMU excels in swatting away shots.


  • SMU’s Bounce-Back Mentality: The Mustangs are coming off a loss to FAU and will be eager to rebound.
  • USF’s Winning Streak: The Bulls’ momentum and home-court edge could fuel their confidence.
  • SMU’s Leading Scorer: Zhuric Phelps (14.7 PPG) will be crucial for SMU’s offensive success.

Model Prediction: SMU Pulls Off the Upset

Our predictive model anticipates a close game, but ultimately forecasts an SMU win (75-68). The Mustangs’ statistical edge and strong road record suggest they have the tools to overcome the surging Bulls.

Bottom Line

This matchup promises to be an exciting duel between two of the AAC’s top teams. SMU’s statistical advantages and impressive road form could lead to a surprise outcome, though USF’s home-court dominance and streak make them formidable opponents.

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