Tonight, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (14-10) travel to Williams Arena to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-9) in a crucial Big Ten matchup. Both teams are looking to solidify their position in the conference standings, and a win tonight could be a major boost.
Current Odds:
- Spread: Minnesota -4.5
- Total: 133.5
Key Points:
- Defense vs. Offense: This game is shaping up to be a clash of styles. Rutgers boasts the nation’s 2nd-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency, while Minnesota has been putting up points lately, scoring 75+ points in four of their last five games.
- Rutgers’ Recent Stretch: The Scarlet Knights have been on a roll defensively, holding opponents to 60 points or less in their last four wins. However, their offense has struggled, failing to reach 70 points in any of those victories.
- Minnesota’s Home Advantage: The Gophers are 15-1 against the spread at home this season, making them a formidable opponent in The Barn.
Against the Spread:
- Rutgers: 9-13 ATS overall, 3-7 ATS on the road
- Minnesota: 21-3 ATS overall, 15-1 ATS at home
Prediction:
This game is expected to be a close, low-scoring affair. While Rutgers’ defense is elite, Minnesota’s offensive firepower and home-court advantage could be the difference. However, the Scarlet Knights’ recent defensive dominance shouldn’t be underestimated.
Below are the score predictions from our model. There are 3 predictions. The first uses full season data. The 2nd uses data from the last 4 games only and the 3rd prediction uses data from the last 7 games only.
For college hoops, current form is very important. We’d advise weighing the 3rd prediction more heavily!
Rutgers 132.5 65 Minnesota -4.5 66 Rutgers 132.5 63 Minnesota -4.5 63 Rutgers 132.5 59 Minnesota -4.5 66
Lastly, here is a look at the head to head history between these two teams.
3/ 2/2023 Rutgers 74 - 8.5 at Minnesota 75
2/ 1/2023 Minnesota 55 +15.0 at Rutgers 90
1/22/2022 Rutgers 65 - 4.5 at Minnesota 68
3/ 6/2021 Rutgers 77 - 3.5 at Minnesota 70
2/ 4/2021 Minnesota 72 + 5.5 at Rutgers 76
1/19/2020 Minnesota 56 + 5.5 at Rutgers 64
2/24/2019 Minnesota 64 + 1.5 at Rutgers 68
1/12/2019 Rutgers 70 + 9.0 at Minnesota 88
2/28/2018 Rutgers 65 - 1.5 vs Minnesota 54
12/ 3/2017 Rutgers 67 +12.5 at Minnesota 89
2/11/2017 Minnesota 72 - 6.5 at Rutgers 63
3/ 5/2016 Minnesota 52 - 2.0 at Rutgers 75
2/23/2016 Rutgers 61 +12.5 at Minnesota 83
3/11/2015 Rutgers 68 +10.0 vs Minnesota 80
1/17/2015 Rutgers 80 +12.5 at Minnesota 89
average outcome:
Rutgers 70.9 Minnesota 71.1
margin = 0.27
time-weighted average outcome:
Rutgers 72.3 Minnesota 68.9
margin = -3.38
average result when the home team is Minnesota
Rutgers 70.6 Minnesota 80.3
margin = 9.71
average result when the home team is Rutgers
Minnesota 61.8 Rutgers 72.7
margin = 10.83
60.00 % of games went Over
100.00 % went Over at Minnesota
average total points per game = 142.00
time-weighted average total = 141.22
the home team covered 69.23 % of the time
the road team covered 30.77 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 5.88
the favorite covered 66.67 % of the time
the underdog covered 33.33 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.57
the favorite won SU 80.00 % of the time
Rutgers covered 46.67 % of the time
Minnesota covered 53.33 % of the time
Minnesota covered 71.43 % of the time at home
Minnesota covered 75.00 % of the time as home favorites