The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will face each other on Sunday in Super Bowl 58. The 49ers are currently favored by -2 with a total of 47.5 at most sportsbooks.
In terms if betting action over the course of the last week and a half the majority of the action has been on the Chiefs and the over.
Personally, I didn’t think much of the Chiefs for much of the year. Their defense was solid but the offense sputtered at times. It’s as if they flipped a switch come playoff time as if they were bored with the regular season.
As good as Purdy has played the edge obviously goes to the Chiefs at QB. This is a huge stage that more than a few newcomers have wilted on over the years.
That said, Purdy doesn’t have to win this game by himself. He simply has to manage the game and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers which is where the 49ers would appear to have an edge. They simply have more weapons.
Here’s a look at the final yards per play numbers in the NFL this year. It’s a simple stat but really sums up what the game of football is all about. Move the ball and stop your opponent from moving the ball.
As you’ll see, nobody does that better than the 49ers.
1 San Francisco 1.4
2 Miami 1.3
4 Baltimore 1.2
9 Kansas City 0.7
8 Dallas 0.4
7 Buffalo 0.3
6 Green Bay 0.3
5 LA Rams 0.3
10 Minnesota 0.3
16 Atlanta 0.2
3 Detroit 0.2
12 Houston 0.2
28 Cleveland 0.1
15 Indianapolis 0
11 Seattle 0
13 Philadelphia -0.1
29 New England -0.1
17 Jacksonville -0.2
20 New Orleans -0.2
14 Tampa Bay -0.2
24 Chicago -0.3
27 Las Vegas -0.3
31 NY Jets -0.3
26 Tennessee -0.3
21 LA Chargers -0.4
22 Pittsburgh -0.4
19 Arizona -0.5
18 Cincinnati -0.8
25 Denver -0.8
32 Carolina -0.8
23 Washington -0.9
30 NY Giants -1.1
There’s a simple calculation that can be done to come up with a line on an NFL game using yards per play. When doing so in this game, the 49ers come up as -4.5 point favorites.
Had you used that calculation alone down the stretch you would have been a winner against the spread.
As you’ll see below, our model favors the Chiefs. In fact, we use 3 sets of predictions using different time frame parameters and each one says the Chiefs are the right side.
Using full season data – 49ers 19 Chiefs 19
Using data from last 4 games – Chiefs 24 49ers 16
Using data from last 7 games – Chiefs 23 49ers 18
The majority of the NFL games these days are decided late. No reason to think this one will be any different with the winner in doubt as we head into the 4th quarter.
Could the game turn as a result of a key turnover? Of course. So it’s worth noting the huge difference in turnover differential here. 49ers +12, Chiefs -9.
We’re going with the 49ers. The Chiefs are the proven entity having been there and done that. Especially where it counts. QB and Coach. But player for player, the 49ers are the better team.
49ERS PK -125
LEAN UNDER 47.5