Army
vs.
Navy
College Football
Pick – Analysis
12/13/14
There was once a time when Army had the edge in this series, but that hasn’t been the case for a while now. Navy has won 12 straight Games between these schools and opened as a -15 point favorite for this one, the largest line between these teams since 2006. The Game will be played at M&T Bank Stadium, home of the Baltimore Ravens.
Despite being 4-7, this is actually the most wins Army has had since the 2010 season. While all of those wins are against teams with a losing record, it’s still a step in the right direction. Navy finished at 6-5, but had a more difficult Schedule, beating some decent teams, while also competing with the likes of Ohio State and Notre Dame.
It’s the second time these teams have met on this field (first was back in 2007) while Navy already played Ohio State on it in their season opener.
These teams are familiar with each other to say the least. Not only do they play each other every year, but they both run the same triple-option offense. The difference is that Navy has run it better over the years and that’s the case again this season as they average one full yard per carry more.
The interesting thing about this matchup is that the Black Knights have actually won the yardage battle in three of the last Four Games. The Midshipmen dominated last season winning 34-7, but Army put up good fights in the previous three matchups.
Junior play caller Keenan Reynolds is the main difference between these teams as he’s led Navy for three years now and is improving by the year. Reynolds could not be stopped last year, rushing for 136 yards and three TDs and it’s unlikely he’ll be stopped in this one against a defense that gives up more than 34 points per Game. Reynolds has rushed for 1,082 yards and 20 TDs on the year, while top running back Noah Copeland has gone for 859 yards and five TDs, averaging 8.2 yards per carry.
Even in losses this season, the Midshipmen have had success running the ball, which is something Army can’t say in losses to Stanford and Air Force. While Navy also lost to Air Force, they put up a fight and rushed for 251 yards.
It’s not like Navy’s defense is any better, but it should be noted these defenses seem to step it up a lot every year, which is why the under has hit eight straight times between them.
The Black Knights are led by senior Angel Santiago, but he actually has less experience than Reynolds. Santiago has gone for 793 yards and 10 TDs for the season while RB LArry Dixon leads the team with 1,012 yards and 10 TDs.
Nothing here says that the result will be any better for Army, as Reynolds is the best offensive player in this Game and he’s on Navy. That might be all that’s needed.
The Midshipmen are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Games following a straight-up win, but 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Black Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games overall and despite the long layoff (last played Nov. 22) are only 6-23 ATS in their last 29 following a bye week. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and again, the under has hit in eight straight.
Our mode predicts Navy to bow Army out of the building. However, we’re going to go against the model here. Navy has a Bowl Game to look forward to regardless of this weeks outcome while for Army, this is it. A win here can make a 5 win season seem like a success. 2 of the last 3 in this series were decided Navy has a 12 Game winning streak in the series and won last year 34-7, however, the two previous Games were decided by 4 and 6.
This is one of the worst Navy teams over the last decade. Most years, they have come into this Game with 9+ wins. This year, Navy won just 6. The only other Navy team with a worse record coming in, was 2011’s 5 win team and that team beat Army by 6. Point being, there’s a window of opportunity for Army here and they need to take advantage.
Poor performances by Navy against teams like Rutgers, Western Kentucky and South Alabama should give Army hope here. Not so sure they pull the upset but +15 seems like a generous spot, despite what Our model says. We’ll take Army here. Army +15