Auburn
vs.
Kansas State
Thursday Night
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/18/14
It’s not often that we got a Top 20 college football matchup on a Thursday night. This week, it’s an interesting matchup between an SEC and Big 12 school. Playing on the road at Kansas State, Auburn opened as a -6.5 point favorite at betonline and was quickly bet up to -9 by early bettors. As of Monday morning, the line is -9.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
In case you don’t follow the Tigers all that much, they are on an incredible streak of 13 straight covers, which is probably the main reason they are such big favorites here.
Not many thought Auburn could back up last season’s incredible run to the National Championship Game, but so far, they’ve had no problems. The Tigers have dominated their first two Games, granted they weren’t against top opponents. However, it can’t be ignored that they controlled Arkansas 45-21 in the first week. To put that in perspective, the Razorbacks easily beat a different Big 12 team last weekend, Texas Tech.
Auburn is still running the same type of offense, where they gash opponents easily on the ground. As a team, they are averaging 6.7 yards per carry, led by Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant out of the backfield. Nick Marshall hasn’t had the greatest starts to the season, but he’s still there even though Jeremy Johnson looked more than adequate at QB in the first Game.
Kansas State usually has a stout defense, but has been susceptible to giving up plenty of points over the last year. They were dominated by Oklahoma last season, getting outgained by 277 yards on the ground in the process. And even last week against Iowa State, they had to come back for the win, and allowed 28 points to a subpar offense.
Bill Snyder will have his guys ready, but it’s going to take a huge effort if they want to slow down this Auburn offense. This still isn’t a top defensive unit and they haven’t held down many teams recently. The likeliest of scenarios for a KSU cover will be a higher scoring Game in which quarterback Jake Waters steps up for the Wildcats.
And right now, there’s no telling what Waters’ ceiling will be with this team. He was the starter last year, but was often splitting time with the running QB Daniel Sams. So far this year, Waters has been solid for the most part, and willed the team to a victory against the Cyclones. Unfortunately, they don’t have much help, especially in the rushing Game.
Waters leads KSU with 193 rushing yards and Charles Jones is next in line with 130. Jones hasn’t been bad, but he’s not the every-down type of guy that John Hubert used to be. Waters will need to be big here, and he’ll be looking to top option Tyler Lockett as much as possible.
The last time Kansas State was a touchdown-plus underdog at home was against Baylor last season and they ended up covering, albeit losing by 10 points.
This is an early week (Monday) preview. Over the course of the week, things can change. However, Our early week take on this Game is that Kansas State could be in a little over their heads here. Historically, they are just 2-13 against the SEC. This is an Auburn team that was 12-2 a year ago and played in the National Championship Game and is in better shape in terms of returning personnel than the Wildcats who were jut 8-5 a year ago with NO impressive wins.
In fact Kansas State lost to every ranked team they played with the exception of their win over #25 Texas Tech. They lost to Baylor and Oklahoma, both at home and both by 10 points and also lost at home to a not very good Texas team, also by 10.
We can’t ignore the emotional edges favoring Kansas State here. It’s a Thursday Night home Game, the only college Game on the board this night. Kansas State and their crowd will be sky high. Furthermore, you have two ranked teams doing battle. Any time you have that situation, where the home team is ranked significantly lower than the visitor, it’s worth taking an extra hard look at the home team. A win for Kansas State would catapult them up the rankings ladder. (Auburn is ranked 5th while Kansas State is ranked 20th).
Our early week take on this Game is that the emotional edges mentioned above combined with both teams having had a week off, could present some value with Kansas State in the 1st quarter, maybe even for a half. But ultimately, considering Kansas State’s record vs. the SEC as well as each teams most recent season, it looks as though Auburn takes over. Check back Thursday afternoon as things can change. But for now…..
Kansas State + for the 1st quarter
Auburn -7 or less for the Game