Citrus Bowl Pick
Clemson
vs.
Oklahoma
12/29/14
The Citrus Bowl features two teams that have had up-and-down seasons mostly because of quarterback injuries. The team that’s favored gets their starting QB back, while the underdog has to stick with their back up. Oklahoma is a -3.5 point favorite against Clemson with Trevor Knight having been cleared to play for the Sooners.
As for the Tigers, they get to play in this Game without their preferred quarterback. Cole Stoudt gets start for Clemson with Deshaun Watson opting to have surgery and missing the bowl Game. The difference in stats between these two Games is probably why bettors are on Oklahoma. Stoudt has six TDs and 10 INTs on the year, while Watson has 14 TDs and only two INTs. In addition, Watson is more mobile player in the pocket.
That said, at least Stoudt has experience and a great defense to help him out. The Tigers defense has led them to a 9-3 record, winning eight of their last nine Games. During that winning streak they never allowed more than 20 points in their wins. Clemson’s best wins were at home over Louisville and South Carolina, but they struggled on the road, losing to Georgia, Florida State and Georgia Tech (with two of those being blowouts).
Oklahoma had a more up-and-down season. After starting 4-0, the Sooners couldn’t seem to get things going and only won back-to-back Games one more time to finish 8-4. They struggled against the best teams in the Big 12 which is a telling stat. Their best win was a road Game at West Virginia 45-33, and they lost a bad OT Game to OK State in their finale.
The absence of Trevor Knight in this offense has been obvious as Cody Thomas wasn’t good in replacement. However, running back Samaje Perine absolutely torched defenses toward the end of the season rushing for 791 yards in the final three Games along with 10 touchdowns. He’s currently listed as questionable with an ankle injury so that’s something to keep an eye on, although he should be good to go. The other good news for Oklahoma is that top WR Sterling Shepard (957 yards, 5 TDs) is also healthy again and that will help Knight mightily. Knight isn’t an amazing quarterback, but he gets the job done and he can move the chains with his legs as well (340 rushing yards, 5 TDs).
Clemson’s defense, led by stud Vic Beasley, will make or break this Game. If they can stop the Oklahoma run Game, this will end up being a close one. Otherwise, if Clemson struggles and we realize their defense is overrated from playing in the ACC, then it’s unlikely the Tigers can win.
With Cole Stoudt, this offense will have some issues going against Oklahoma. Even though OU doesn’t have a great defense, that probably won’t matter. Stoudt has a shot to prove himself and has plenty of experience this year, but backing him is hard at this point. Clemson will probably run a good amount behind Wayne Gallman (714 yards, 4 TDs). Wide receivers Mike Williams and Artavis SCott will need to make plays in the air as well.
As the healthier team and coming out of the better conference, it’s easy to see why bettors are backing Oklahoma, especially after their bowl win over Alabama last season. Granted, Clemson did beat Ohio State in their bowl Game.
The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-Conference Games, but 2-6 ATS in their last eight Games overall. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall , but 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site Games.
This is another Game where we are playing the side as a key release, so we’ll offer an opinion on the total here.
We’re going to go UNDER 49 here but it’s just a lean. The total opened at 54 which offered much more value.