Cotton Bowl Pick
Michigan State
vs.
Baylor
1/1/15
The Cotton Bowl should be one of the better Games to watch this season featuring two fun teams that should put up plenty of points. As is the case for every Big Ten matchup, the opposition is favored. This time it’s Baylor out of the Big 12, favored by -2.5 points over Michigan State.
Michigan State’s only two losses on the season were against two of the top Four teams, Oregon and Ohio State. Baylor’s lone loss was at West Virginia and they hold the No. 5 spot in the CFP rankings, meaning they were extremely close at having a chance for the National Championship.
Despite playing in the Big Ten, the Spartans Schedule isn’t all that much easier than Baylor’s is. The road Game at Oregon stands out early in the season and is harder than anything Baylor had to face. A do-or-die home Game against Ohio State cost them, with the Buckeyes looking like the better team most of the way to win 49-37. against good teams, the defense hasn’t lived up to the hype, but their offense has taken a step this year.
The Bears didn’t challenge themselves in non-Conference play and their top wins were a huge comeback against TCU 61-58 and then fairly easy victories over Oklahoma and Kansas State later in the season. The loss at West Virginia will hang over their head for a while as the Mountaineers outscored them by 14 points in the Fourth quarter. Baylor leads the nation in scoring and the defense has shined at times (14 points allowed at Oklahoma), but they also struggled a bit (58 points vs. TCU, 46 vs. Texas Tech).
Baylor will be without offensive coordinator Phillip Montgomery, who took a head coaching job at Tulsa. Passing coordinator Kendal Briles (Art Briles’ son) will take over, but it’ll be interesting to see if that has an effect on this offense.
This team did Score48.8 points per Game, but Montgomery has been a big help over the years. Quarterback Bryce Petty (26 TDs, 6 INTs) didn’t post the same gaudy numbers in his senior season, but it’s not like he had a bad year. He still has thrown a touchdown in 24 straight Games, and it’s unlikely MSU will stop that streak. Three different receivers have at least 50 receptions so it isn’t like Petty focuses on one guy either which helps. While great in the passing Game, Baylor also has a consistent ground Game led by Shock Linwood (1,226 yards, 16 TDs).
Michigan State does allow 19.9 points per Game, but most of that is due to playing in the Big Ten. This isn’t the same group from a year ago and they’ve been beaten up against better offenses. It would be a surprise if this group could stop Baylor consistently.
Baylor’s defense is improved, but they will have a problem of their own. Just like the Bears, Michigan State has a balanced attack, scoring 43.1 points per Game.
MSU quarterback Connor Cook expects to return for his senior season, saying he has some “unfinished business” to attend to. He’s already listed as a top 5 QB for the NFL Draft, so it’ll be interesting to see what he does if the Spartans win here.
Cook has a great arm, but he is sort of hit-or-miss. There are times when he can’t seem to get anything right, and then others when everything is working for him. He finished with 22 TDs and 6 INTs, but completed 58.2% of his passes. He stepped up in last year’s bowl Game against Stanford, and it’ll take the same kind of effort for MSU to win again. His favorite target Tony Lippett (1,124 yards, 11 TDs) will be Baylor’s top priority, as the two have rarely been stopped. Throw in running back Jeremy LAngford (1,360 yards, 19 TDs), who has 16 straight Conference Games of at least 100 yards, and you can see why this offense will pose problems for Baylor.
Both offenses should be able to Scorein this one so it should be a fun, back and forth battle.
The Spartans have covered in five straight neutral-site Games, are 13-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. the Big 12. The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-Conference Games and 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Check back on Game day for a pick. If we use the side as a Key Release, we’ll offer an opinion on the total.