Louisville
vs.
Notre Dame
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/22/14
Notre Dame is back at it, but maybe that’s not what they want. The Irish lost unexplainably last week to Northwestern in overtime after being ahead by 11 points in the Fourth quarter. Notre Dame opened as high as -9 at betonline when they posted their openers Sunday afternoon. 5 Dimes opened at -5.5 but Louisville money continued to flow as this line now sits at -3.5.
Louisville is not a team to overlook, but according to the results, they haven’t done a whole lot. The Cardinals are 7-3 and lost their only Game to a ranked team (Florida State). Their other two losses were on the road in close Games at Virginia and Clemson. Their best win is still the season opener against Miami (FL). After winning at Boston College 38-19 last week, we at least know they’ll put up a fight.
The same can’t be said about Notre Dame, who has now lost three of its last Four Games. The defense has suddenly become non-existent the further the season goes. In five straight Games, the Irish have allowed at least 31 points, and the average allowed in that stretch is 42.2 points per Game. Even with Everett Golson at the helm, he can’t win every Game if the defense allows that many points to teams like UNC, Navy and Northwestern.
Motivation is a big factor here just like last week for Notre Dame. They had their sights set on a major bowl Game, but have suddenly fallen apart and now with their best wins coming against Michigan and Stanford, who knows where they’ll fall.
The bad news for the Cardinals is that starting QB Will Gardner injured his knee in the last Game and will be out for the rest of the season. Freshman Reggie Bonnafon steps in, and so far, he has looked just as good as Gardner in limited appearances. This team will still rely on the running Game through Brandon Radcliff (8 TDs) and Michael Dyer (4 TDs). With how Notre Dame’s defense has played, there’s no telling what Bonnafon will look like.
As for the Cardinals defense, they have been much better than Notre Dame’s, but some of that has to do with the ACC. They did allow 42 points at home to Florida State, and outside of that Game, haven’t really played a good offense.
Golson will still be slinging it plenty for the Irish, but interceptions and turnovers have begun to haunt him. He now has 12 interceptions in his last seven Games. This is still a guy that can lead the offense and put points on the board against anyone. William Fuller is his main target with 853 yards and 13 TDs (almost half of Golson’s total). But you still can’t forget about the ND running Game that has picked it up as the season’s moved along behind Tarean Folston (668 yards) as well as Golson and his eight rushing TDs.
Will Notre Dame get back on the winning track, or can Louisville finally add a big win to their resume?
The Cardinals are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record and 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road Games overall. The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, which hides the fact that they have struggled against teams with losing records lately (1-4 ATS in their last five overall). This is the first meeting between these schools.
Very difficult to recommend a Notre Dame team that’s self destructing. However, sometimes that’s the time to buy. Even the faithful public who always back the Irish at home, have turned their backs as 64% of the action has come in on the Cards. We’ll go against the public and make a small play on Notre Dame here as they go all out in their last home Game of the season and grab a W. If you wait long enough, you should be able to get -3 or better. Notre Dame -3 or better.