Nebraska
vs.
Fresno State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/13/14
Nebraska may have one of the best running Games in the nation, but that didn’t stop McNeese State from giving the Cornhuskers a scare last Saturday. With 20 seconds remaining, they needed some heroics from running back Ameer Abdullah, who struggled all day long on the ground, to Scoreon a 58-yard reception.
They travel to the west coast this week to take on a team in transition, Fresno State. The Cornhuskers opened as -10 point favorites and at midweek it reached -11.5 at 5Dimes sportsbook with a total of 62.
It’s hard to put Fresno State at fault after getting blown out in their first two Games. They lost one of their best QBs in school history in Derek Carr and have transitioned to a new dual-QB system, which is a work in progress to say the least. To start the season with two Pac-12 schools on the road is not ideal. Neither is a Game against Nebraska, but it will be the Bulldogs home opener.
The Fresno State defense has struggled throughout the years and this season it’s no different. They allowed a monstrous 701 yards to USC and 526 to Utah. Both of them surpassed 250 yards on the ground, which is an immediate problem going into this Game.
Nebraska lives by the run because they definitely wouldn’t survive on Tommy Armstrong’s arm alone. It wouldn’t be surprising if Armstrong and Abdullah both ran for over 100 yards a piece. The Cornhuskers may have struggled last week, but this is still not a team to overlook. Their offense, when clicking, can stifle some of the best defenses in the country.
Fresno State does not have a good defense and it doesn’t help when the offense has trouble moving the ball. The dual-QB system hasn’t done much for them, and even though they played a lot better against Utah, it didn’t really matter. Combined, the two quarterbacks are completing roughly 55 percent of their passes and after a 4 INT performance at USC, threw 3 TDs vs. Utah. Their running Game hasn’t done much which is one of the main problems. RB Marteze Waller hasn’t been bad, but his 158 yards hasn’t been enough.
The hope for Bulldogs backers is that it’s their home opener and they should put in a better overall performance as a team than their last couple Games. That’s the hope at least. Stopping Abdullah and Armstrong could be a problem, but if McNeese State can hold them to 24 points before a last-minute Game-winning touchdown, there is evidence that smaller teams can at least contain them.
The Bulldogs have run the ball a lot more than previous years because they don’t have Derek Carr. It’s likely they’ll continue that plan in efforts to keep Nebraska’s offense off the field. If that doesn’t work, the dual-QB system is not something to put trust in at the moment.
The Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games, but 1-4 ATS in their last five Games following a straight up win. The Bulldogs are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home Games, 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-Conference Games, but have covered in Four straight vs. the Big Ten.
On the one hand, it’s tempting to back Fresno here based on nothing more than their history of playing top tier programs tough. Hey, this was an 11 win team in 2013. Throw in the Nebraska performance against McNeese State and that would seem to throw even more fuel on the fire.
But backing Fresno would mean you’re simply making a guess that somehow some way they’ll show up this week. Because let’s face it, it’s very difficult to back a team that has given up 50+ points in their only other two Games. It’s hard to imagine Nebraska not doing the same. Nebraska -11.5