Oklahoma – Oklahoma State Free College Football Pick against the Spread

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Oklahoma

vs.

Oklahoma State

Big 12

College Football

Pick – Analysis

12/6/14

The excitement for this Game is considerably less than it was expected to be early in the season. In the first week into October, both of these teams were in the Top 20 and Oklahoma was listed as high as No. 4 in the AP Polls. Instead of building on those rankings, both teams have gone backwards, one team more so than the other. The Sooners are a -20 point home favorite as seen at 5 Dimes and betonline.

The spread between these teams hasn’t been more than 10 points since 2007 when it was a similar situation, with Oklahoma covering as a 13.5-point home favorite. With how Oklahoma State has looked in their last five Games, it’ll be a surprise if this Game stays competitive.

The Cowboys only have five wins, so with a loss here, their season will be over. Due to that and this being the Battle of Bedlam, they should have a lot of fight in them. Oklahoma State has lost five straight Games by at least 21 points which is not a good rate. In their last Game at Baylor, they scored 28 points (14 in Fourth quarter) so that could be a good sign.

Oklahoma will be without quarterback Trevor Knight, so that is definitely something to consider when betting this Game. Cody Thomas has started the last two Games and gone 13-of-33 for one TD and three interceptions. Surprisingly, both Games resulted in wins, 42-30 over Texas Tech (Thomas rushed for 103 yards, 1 TD) and 44-7 over Kansas. For Oklahoma backers, the thought is that their defense will control OK State, while Semaje Perine and the rushing attack control the other side.

The Sooners may have injuries in the passing Game (top WR Sterling Shepard included), but their running Game has been close to unstoppable against weak teams this season. In case you forgot, Perine went for 427 yards and five TDs in his last Game, and hit 213 yards and three TDs in the Game before that. Even if Thomas doesn’t get the job done at QB, Oklahoma’s run Game can still pile the points on.

As for Oklahoma State, they made a switch at quarterback last Game to highly touted freshman Mason Rudolph. Considering they played at Baylor, the jury is still out on him, but he had his moments throwing for 287 yards and a couple TDs (and two picks). With Desmond Roland and Tyreek Hill (both underrated) out of the backfield, this offense moved the ball better than when Daxx Garman was in at QB. And because of that, a backdoor cover is possible, or they could even stay within striking distance all Game. Roland rushed for 144 yards and two TDs in last year’s matchup and they’ll need something similar.

OK State just allowed 317 yards and five TDs on the ground to Baylor, so they’ll definitely have to improve on that. But then again, the Cowboys still covered in that Game.

The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six Games overall and 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. However, they are an impressive 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their previous Game. The Sooners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 December Games, but are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Games overall. Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these schools.

Nothing strong here and in fact, Our model predicts that Oklahoma will blow the door off the Cowboys Saturday, however, we’ll side with Oklahoma State in this one. Their current 5 Game slide suggests this team threw in the towel long ago, but one win can magically make a very bad season, a decent one. Do we think they’ll pull the upset? Doubtful, but a huge effort could get them the cover here. Also note that the Cowboys may be worth playing in the 1st qtr and 1st halfOklahoma State +20

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