Ole Miss
vs.
Arkansas
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/22/14
Ole Miss is back on the field with two make-or-break Games to close out the season. Coming off two straight SEC losses, the Rebels still have a slim shot at making the College Football Playoff if they can win their next two. The Rebels are -3.5 point road favorites at Arkansas.
From the outside, this Game looks like it should be more than a 3-point spread as Arkansas is just 5-5. However, dive into the Razorbacks Schedule and it shows five losses against five of the best teams in the conference. They picked up their first SEC win last weekend, defeating LSU 17-0 at home. In previous home Games, Arkansas took Texas A&M to overtime, barely lost to Alabama 14-13 and a terrible second quarter did them in against Georgia. The Razorbacks are a secretly solid team, and Ole Miss is about to get a taste of that.
This is the Rebels’ first real Game since the tough home loss against Auburn that saw LAquon Treadwell get hurt. Ole Miss still has the big win over Alabama and a road win at Texas A&M, but that’s actually it for quality wins for this team. Are the Rebels as good as their No. 8 AP ranking suggests or will the Razorbacks expose them, much like LSU did last month (10-7 Tigers win).
Arkansas is kind of in the same mold as that LSU team, in which they have zero confidence in quarterback Brandon Allen, and the running Game is dominant. Allen has a nice 15 TDs and 5 INTs on the year, but he hasn’t found the end zone in two straight. As expected from Bret Bielema, he has turned this squad into a rush-heavy group led by two RBs Jonathan Williams (932 yards, 11 TDs) and Alex Collins (886 yards, 11 TDs).
Ole Miss is known for its great defense, but LSU did rush for 250-plus yards against them, so it can be done. On the other end, the Arkansas defense has taken a huge leap this season and it has shown, shutting out LSU last week.
The Rebels offense was already hard to trust even with playmaker LAquon Treadwell in the mix, but now someone else will have to make the big plays. Bo Wallace has been OK at quarterback, but inconsistency is still a problem. He was great against Alabama throwing three TDs, but then in the LSU Game he went 14-of-33 for one TD and one pick. Vince Sanders will have to step up even more in the receiving Game with Treadwell out. Their run Game is suspect as well with zero rushers over 400 yards.
Arkansas held LSU to 36 yards on 32 carries last weekend and it could be a similar day for this Ole Miss rushing attack. This is a big Game for Bo Wallace and a lot will be riding on his shoulders. He threw for 416 yards in last year’s 34-24 win, but expecting that to happen again might be a little too much. Arkansas is no longer a walkover in the SEC.
The Rebels are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Games overall and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Games following a straight-up win. The Razorbacks have killed the spread this year at 8-2. They are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. In the last six meetings between these schools in Arkansas, the Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS.
When ranking defenses using yards per point, Ole Miss ranks #1 in the Nation with a ypp number of 26. You don’t obtain a number like that 10 Games into a season while playing in the SEC without being damn good. The Ole Miss defense could very well be the difference in this Game. We’ve felt all along that the Ole Miss vs. Miss State would be a monster of a Game with National Title implications and for that to happen, Ole Miss needs to get by Arkansas.
As mentioned above, Arkansas needs a win to go bowling and they’ll have to beat either Ole Miss or Missouri on the road next week to qualify. If they fail, they’ll be the best team in years not to go to a bowl Game. We think it all comes down to next week for the Razorbacks as we like Ole Miss here. Not crazy about laying -3.5 so we’ll put this out as Ole Miss -3 or better.