St. Petersburg
Bowl Pick
NC State
vs.
Central Florida
12/26/14
Considering what happened last year for both of these teams, it’s been an impressive 2014 for them, but for different reasons. UCF is a -2 point favorite in the St. Petersburg Bowl over NC State, a year removed from the Knights’ Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor.
The Knights had to deal with the loss of QB Blake Bortles and RB Storm Johnson, as well as multiple studs from the offensive line. A year after a 12-win season, many fans had their doubts, and after a 0-2 start (losses to Penn State, Missouri), things looked bleak. That is until they hit Conference play and won nine of their next 10 Games, with the only loss coming at lowly Connecticut. Some of those wins includedan OT Game against BYU as well as the Hail Mary-winning touchdown at East Carolina to close the season.
As for NC State, they were coming off a three-win season (winless in ACC) in Dave Doeren’s first season as head coach, and even after starting 4-0 against weak non-Conference competition this year, they still didn’t win their first Four ACC Games. The Wolfpack fought Florida State, but came up short and then lost three more. Instead of faltering down the stretch, NC State won the Games they were supposed to, and upset UNC in the season finale 35-7 to finish with three ACC wins.
The one known commodity in this Game is the UCF defense, which is the main reason why the Knights are favored. OUtside of a strange loss to UConn, UCF has been led by their defense all year allowing fewer than 18 points per Game.
NC State’s offense has shown a spark at times, but was mostly inconsistent throughout the year. After scoring 41 points vs. FSU, they were shutout at Clemson.
In order for the Wolfpack to win, they need to get some kind of ground Game going behind Shadrach Thornton (811 yards, 9 TDs) and even quarterback Jacoby Brissett (498 rushing yards). Due to a solid rushing attack the last two Games, Brissett has only needed to attempt 30 total passes. Brissett has been solid most of the year throwing the ball with 22 TDs and 5 INTs, but against better defenses he has trouble finding receivers. He went 4-for-18 for 35 yards against Clemson.
UCF’s run defense has rarely been beaten this season, so if NC State can’t find room on the ground, everything will depend on Brissett, which isn’t what the Wolfpack want.
On the other end, NC State’s defense can be beat, but UCF doesn’t have the type of offense to put up loads of points. Because of that, even if UCF’s defense plays well, NC State should be able to stick around no matter what.
QB Justin Holman has had his moments this season with 20 TDs and 13 INTs, but he’s only had more than two passing TDs once. For an offense that averages 3.2 yards per carry, that’s not great. William StaNBAck leads the ground Game with just 659 yards, but has 10 TDs. Breshad Perriman (906 yards, 9 TDs) is the biggest threat in the receiving Game, and he’s the one that caught the Hail Mary against ECU.
If Brissett can make plays with his feet against this UCF defense, that could be the edge. Keep in mind UCF hasn’t had the toughest Schedule and gave up plenty of points to better teams like Penn State, Missouri and East Carolina.
The Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six bowl Games and 4-1 ATS in their last five overall. The Knights have covered in Four straight vs. a team with a winning record and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-Conference Games, with those two losses being the first two Games of the season.
Our Pick – UCF -2.5