Stanford
vs.
UCLA
PAC-12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/28/14
The state of the Pac-12 South is a bit muddled right now with three teams currently at 6-2, but it’s pretty simple for UCLA. If the Bruins win this Game, they’ll win the South and get a rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 title Game. Surprisingly against a 6-5 Stanford team, UCLA is only a -4.5 point favorite at home.
This is it for UCLA. Despite what they’ve been through this year, if they win this Game, they’ll be in the title Game and that’s all they could have hoped for before the season. The Bruins struggled mightily early on and lost back-to-back home Games; one against Utah and another against Oregon in which they were losing the entire time. since those losses, it’s been smoother sledding and that all culminated with a big 38-20 win over USC last weekend.
It’s been pretty much the opposite for Stanford this season. The Cardinal got that valuable sixth win last weekend at California, but this is not the same team as previous seasons. Their defense is weaker, and the offense is not consistent at all. They have yet to beat a ranked team all season, losing to USC, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oregon and Utah.
Stanford has had the edge in this series, winning six straight Games, covering in five of those. But again, this is a much different situation than previous seasons. Both teams look a bit different.
Kevin Hogan is not a bad quarterback, but his flaws have shown this year without a dominant running Game. He’s been asked to do more and his numbers (15 TDs, 8 INTs) don’t match where they were at last year with fewer attempts. Without a dominant running back, Stanford’s offense can’t establish any consistency on a Game-by-Game basis. Remound Wright went for 92 yards and Four touchdowns last weekend, but he only had two touchdowns in his prior nine Games.
What doesn’t help Stanford is that playmaker Ty Montgomery left last weekend’s Game with a shoulder injury. If he misses this Game, that’s a pretty decent blow to the Cardinal’s chances at winning, or even covering.
UCLA has stepped it up lately, and that counts on both ends of the field. They started to come around defensively in the Game against Arizona at the beginning of November when they held the Wildcats to seven points.
Stanford’s defense is still good, but has not done enough with how little the offense has been scoring. Stopping Brett Hundley won’t be easy and can almost be likened to Oregon’s Marcus Mariota. The Ducks put 45 points on UCLA a few weeks ago.
Hundley doesn’t have the same numbers as Mariota, but he can be as scary to face as Mariota. Hundley is accurate (72% completion), completing passes at 8.55 yards per attempt and he’s extremely mobile (566 rushing yards, eight TDs). Unlike Stanford, the UCLA offense does have a running Game. In addition to Hundley, Paul Perkins (1,262 yards, 7 TDs) has been great this year for the Bruins and has been vital for this team.
The Cardinal are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road Games and only 0-7 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win. The Bruins don’t have many trends, but they are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. Once again, Stanford has had the edge in this matchup in recent seasons.
UCLA is 4-2 against common opponents winning by an average score of 40-30. Stanford is 2-4 against common opponents and losing by an average score of 19-22. The storyline here is obviously the UCLA offense vs. the Stanford defense.
Or, perhaps, the storyline is revenge. Make that revenge multiplied by 6. Stanford has beaten UCLA 6 straight times and 5 of those 6 Stanford teams were 11 and 12 win teams. Stanford has slipped a notch or two while UCLA appears to be on the rise. This is a scenario where revenge works best. The team that’s been pounded 6 straight finally has the better team in this matchup and we’d expect them to take full advantage of the situation by leaving no doubt when the dust clears. UCLA -4.5